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Game of the Week (Lions vs. Patriots), Irrelevant Game of the Week (Bears vs. Bucs), and who to root for: Week 12
There wasn't much interest the last time I posted this, so I don't know whether it's worth it to keep doing these, but I may as well post the updated version for this week's games. edit: Turns out that previous post had fallen into the spam filter. edit: Added weather forecasts per request. Let me know if you think it's worthwhile or just a distraction. "Game of the Week" At this point in the season, "Game of the Week" as I've been defining it (highest impact on which teams make the playoffs) begins to diverge from other measures you might use to define the most important game of the week. The teams fighting to get into the playoffs these days are the upper middle class of the NFL—those just on the border between making the playoffs and missing them. Meanwhile, the elite teams of the NFL have their eyes set on homefield advantage and bye weeks. Fortunately, Mike Beuoy has begun breaking down the impact of games by their effect on seeding. Moreover, in an earlier post, he even broke down the effect of the various seeds on a team's likelihood of making the Super Bowl, giving us a reasonable way to weight seeding in order to incorporate it into a single ranking. Therefore, this week, for the first time, "Game of the Week" takes seeding into account. You can think of it as the game with the biggest influence on the Super Bowl picture. Notable Games This Week: Title Game High-level Play Closely Matched Matters Most to Any Single Team Matters Most to Both Teams Playing Affects Largest Number of Teams Highest Impact on Post-season Field Highest Impact on Division Winners Highest Impact: First-Round Bye Highest Impact: Top Seed Highest Impact Overall Chiefs‑Raiders ✓ Ravens‑Saints ✓ ✓ ✓ Lions‑Patriots ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Cardinals‑Seahawks ✓ ✓ Dolphins‑Broncos #1 All Games of Week 12, Ranked by Influence on Super Bowl Picture1 Away Team Home Team Influence on Super Bowl Picture2 Teams Rooting for Away Team, ordered by how much they care3 Teams Rooting for Home Team, ordered by how much they care3 Betting Line4 Weather Forecast4 Game Time5 Detroit Lions (7‑3) New England Patriots (8‑2) 24% (19%) DET, DEN, MIA, IND, PIT, KC, BAL, CIN, HOU, BUF, CLE, SD NE, GB, PHI, DAL, ,SEA, ARI, SF, CHI, NO Patriots by 7 MOSTLY CLOUDY, WIND 6-11. GAME TEMP 43, RH 73% WIND CHILL 38 1:00 Arizona Cardinals (9‑1) Seattle Seahawks (6‑4) 20% (16%) ARI, CHI, GB, PHI, DAL, SF, DET SEA, GB, PHI, DAL, SF, DET Seahawks by 7 MOSTLY CLOUDY, 60% CHANCE SHOWERS. WIND 10-15. GAME TEMP 48, RH 86% 4:05 Miami Dolphins (6‑4) Denver Broncos (7‑3) 18% (14%) MIA, KC, IND, PIT, BAL, CIN, SD, NE, HOU, CLE DEN, NE, BUF, CLE, HOU, KC, IND, PIT, CIN, SD, BAL Broncos by 7 PARTLY CLOUDY, WIND 12-22, GUSTY. GAME TEMP 39, RH 62% WIND CHILL 30 4:25 Green Bay Packers (7‑3) Minnesota Vikings (4‑6) 18% (12%) GB DET, DAL, PHI, ARI, SEA, SF, MIN, NO Packers by 9 CLOUDY, 60% CHANCE RAIN. NORTHWEST WIND 5-10. GAME TEMP 39, RH 79% WIND CHILL 33 (FOGGY) 1:00 Kansas City Chiefs (7‑3) Oakland Raiders (0‑10) 14% (11%) KC DEN, NE, CIN, IND, BAL, SD, MIA, HOU, PIT, CLE Chiefs by 7 TNF Dallas Cowboys (7‑3) New York Giants (3‑7) 12% (11%) DAL GB, PHI, DET, ARI, SEA, SF, CHI, NYG, STL, WAS Cowboys by 4 CLOUDY, 60% CHANCE RAIN. WIND 10-20. GAME TEMP 49, RH 86% SNF Baltimore Ravens (6‑4) New Orleans Saints (4‑6) 11% (10%) BAL, ATL, CAR NO, PIT, CIN, KC, MIA, DEN, HOU, CLE, SD, IND Saints by 3 MNF Cincinnati Bengals (6‑3‑1) Houston Texans (5‑5) 10% (10%) CIN, IND HOU, PIT, DEN, BAL, CLE, NE, IND Texans by 2.5 PARTLY SUNNY, WIND 9-14. GAME TEMP 77, RH 66% HEAT INDEX 80 1:00 Cleveland Browns (6‑4) Atlanta Falcons (4‑6) 7% (6%) CLE, NO, CAR ATL, PIT, CIN, KC, MIA, HOU, BAL, SD Falcons by 3 1:00 Tennessee Titans (2‑8) Philadelphia Eagles (7‑3) 9% (5%) DAL, DET, ARI, GB, SF, SEA, CHI, STL, MIN PHI Eagles by 11.5 MOSTLY CLOUDY, 30% CHANCE SHOWERS. WIND 9-14. GAME TEMP 47, RH 79% 1:00 Washington Redskins (3‑7) San Francisco 49ers (6‑4) 6% (5%) ARI, PHI, DAL, DET, SEA, GB, CHI, MIN, WAS SF 49ers by 9 4:25 Jacksonville Jaguars(1‑9) Indianapolis Colts (6‑4) 6% (3%) HOU, DEN, MIA, PIT, NE, CIN, BAL, KC, TEN IND Colts by 13.5 CLOUDY, 70% CHANCE SHOWER/STORMS LATE. WIND 10-20. GAME TEMP 51, RH 83% (LUCAS OIL STADIUM ROOF MAY CLOSE IN WET WEATHER) 1:00 Saint Louis Rams (4‑6) San Diego Chargers (6‑4) 2% (2%) KC, CLE, CIN, STL, BAL, DEN, BUF SD, SF Chargers by 5.5 MOSTLY SUNNY, WIND 5-10. GAME TEMP 64, RH 58% 4:05 New York Jets (2‑8) Buffalo Bills (5‑5) .4% (.4%) MIA, KC BUF Bills by 2.5 MNF Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2‑8) Chicago Bears (4‑6) .01% (.01%) TB CHI Bears by 4 CLOUDY, 70% CHANCE RAIN. WIND 12-17. GAME TEMP 52, RH 86% 1:00 1. Source: Mike Beuoy at fivethirtyeight.com, who runs a weekly Monte Carlo simulation of the remaining season. The ranking his simulation is based on, along with the current projected probabilities of the season's result for each team can be found here. The simulation is run 50,000 times. Ties are neglected. The numbers appearing in the above table are the results of a bit more calculation done on the data he provides; hopefully I didn't mess up anything about the math! 2. The first percentage represents the cumulative impact a game has on the Super Bowl picture—i.e. the difference between the picture if Team A wins the game vs. if Team B wins the game—taking seeding into account. The unit is a single team's chance of making the super bowl. Thus, for instance the expected impact of a conference championship game will always be 200%, since if Team A wins, it will have a 100% chance of playing in the Super Bowl and Team B will have a 0% chance, and vice versa if Team B wins. Since the Super Bowl involves two teams, the theoretical limit of this number would be 400% (in practice, this limit is unreachable, as no single game ever completely determines both teams playing in the Super Bowl). The number in parentheses reflects an adjustment based on the odds of each team's winning, to yield what you might call the "Expected Impact" of the game. This decreases the importance of games where an upset would have a large impact on the Super Bowl picture, but such an upset is unlikely to happen. The more lopsided the odds (i.e. the less likely an upset), the greater difference this makes; if the odds are even, it makes no difference at all. For consistency's sake, in calculating this, I used the odds used by the simulation; in most cases these are virtually the same as the current line, but there are occasional exceptions when the line has moved since the simulation was carried out. 3. In a few cases, some teams can justify rooting in either direction of a matchup: for instance, if one team's victory leads to a better chance of making the playoffs but the other team's victory leads to a better chance of a higher seed. In such cases, the rooting team is listed normally on the side of the team whose victory is overall better for its chances of appearing in the Super Bowl, but also appears in small italics on the other side, to show that it has something to gain from that side's victory as well. 4. Source: vegasinsider.com. 5. Boldfaced for the most important game of each time slot. Points of Interest GAMES MOST IMPORTANT/AFFECTS LARGEST NUMBER OF TEAMS/MATTERS MOST TO BOTH TEAMS PLAYING: Detroit vs. New England, a potential Super Bowl preview, affects most of the teams in the NFL (21) one way or another. Not even the highest-level game of the day according to the ranking used for the simulation (Miami vs. Denver gets that honor), when the standings are taken into account, it's the game that matters most, as both these teams are heavy contenders for their divisions, the top two seeds, and even (especially in Detroit's case) the wild card race. When seeding is taken into account, it's the most important game of the day by a significant margin. Another factor in this game's importance is that it's an interconference game. Interconference games tend to be especially significant for two reasons: 1) Since they affect both conferences, they have the potential to affect more teams. 2) The teams affected have no ambivalence about who they want to win: AFC teams want the NFC team to win, and NFC teams want the AFC team to win. By contrast, in a game like Miami-Denver, teams have a foot in both camps: a Miami win gives them a better shot at a higher seed, but a Denver win gives them a better shot at making the playoffs at all. Effectively, that means the outcome is relatively less important to them, since either way it goes, they gain something and they lose something. MOST IMPORTANT TO ANY SINGLE TEAM: It seems absurd to talk about the team with the best record in the NFL as going under the radar, but that's exactly what the Arizona Cardinals have been doing. You could have made a lot of money betting on them week after week, because they keep winning, but the market keeps doubting if they can do it again. This week, they're again heavy underdogs, in their game against the Seattle Seahawks. Part of the problem is that they're starting a backup quarterback. They've managed to win games week after week, but Vegas doubts that they can keep the current pace up down the stretch. So, despite the large lead they have, not only in their division, but even for the top seed, this is a very important game for their Super Bowl chances. Winning it will strengthen their lead in the race for seeding and make it all the more likely that, even if they drop a couple of games at the end, they still win that race. According to the simulation, this game makes virtually a 10% difference to the Cardinals odds of making the Super Bowl. MOST IMPORTANT TO PLAYOFF FIELD: In past weeks, these posts only took the overall playoff field into account, without considering seeding. By this measure, the most important game this week would be Baltimore vs. New Orleans, between two teams that aren't really in contention for the top two seeds, but part of the tight race for the lower seeds. The divisions they play in, the AFC North and NFC South, respectively, are the two most competitive divisions in the NFL. LEAST IMPORTANT: The least important game of the week is Chicago vs. Tampa Bay, between two teams that are almost out of the playoff race—but this game still matters to both teams. Remarkably, not a single NFC team has given up on the playoffs at this point in the season. TEAMS MOST POPULAR: The most popular team this week is the New York Giants, which most of the NFC is hoping can knock Dallas down a peg. (The Raiders, equally popular before Thursday Night's game, came through for their fans!) MOST INVESTED: The team most invested in the games this week is Cincinnati, currently in the running for pretty much every possible seed in the playoffs (and not certain to make any of them). The Bengals have an interest in literally every game involving an AFC team except for Jets-Bills. LOOKING TOWARDS NEXT YEAR: While the Oakland Raiders are the only team thus far that has been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, the Jaguars and Jets are both virtually out of the playoff race. By contrast, every single NFC team has at least a .1% chance of making the playoffs. Interestingly, while the Titans still have an interest in the playoffs, they are more concerned with Indianapolis losing than winning their own game. Previous Posts Week 11.5 Week 8.5 Week 8 Week 7.5 Week 7 submitted by /u/TheEquivocator to r/nfl [link] [comments]
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TheEquivocator |
Nov 23, 2014 |