Sp500 Chart

... the backbones of credit. SP500/DXY (SP500 Index vs Dollar Basket Index... dollar begins to outperform the SP500, that signals that dollar strength ... eventually shows in earnings reports. SP500/SXY (SP500 Index vs Swiss Franc Index). ... and duration. I can compare SP500/EEM (Sp500 vs Emerging Markets Index) to ... context which is the execution chart itself confirming momentum from our ...

... you're in at 1:1 sp500. You might make 10% in... 1:1 I mean %change chart = %change in account, not RR...

... consistent habit and routine regarding chart checking. This is general advice... want strategy advice for your chart grinding I would say that..., or they get fomo because SP500 moved 4% when gold moved...

.... I will wait for the chart make its first moves after ... will probably short metals and sp500 instead

... failed for most folks. The chart don't lie. The companies will... about the same as the SP500 annual rate of return So ...

...://fu.minkabu.jp/chart/tplatinum/correlation_coefficient ↓金とSP500を混ぜ...

... 500 lower. According to the chart, the S&P 500 reached its ... a sharp bearish reversal. The chart below illustrates the movement of ... a 1-hour candlestick timeframe. Attachments SP500.jpg 101.6 KB · Views: ...

... support. He thinks that both SP500 and gold may be 10... the wife drapes herself in. Chart shown : GLTR (physical gold &...

SP500 UPDATE 26/05/2026 Technical ... Profit Line and Profit Advisor​ Chart reading (H4 timeframe)​ Price: 7... or a regime change. Attachments sp500 2605.png 24.6 KB...

... who trade Gold on 1minute chart with high risk. Does not..., trading SP500 with extrem little risk, using the m5 chart but watching...

.... Long and Strong the Vangurad SP500 index until I am 65... and click the ES futures chart.

.... As you see in the chart, they rise to a peak ... Hey @Load. I rejigged the chart as a % of total MC. ... years the MD % change precedes SP500 moves, and others is the ... AI to place on the chart. As such the present MD ...

... I do professionally… but the SP500 right now is becoming such ... in the previous post, the SP500 currently looks VERY bullish visually. ... traders are looking at the chart thinking: “this thing is obviously ... things currently happening underneath the SP500 so you can understand that ... words: the danger is NOT: “SP500 must crash tomorrow.” The danger ...

... have golden crossed on monthly chart meaning the historical lower rates...% on the 30yr. Last time SP500 broke above long term orange.... This is a monthly log chart not normal algo. Copper. Close...

[@lou3092](mention://user/669d803e-76fc-4f86-84d3-58e6fe2227db) - Brutal? Really? That bad? Take a look at a daily chart of the SP500 or the NASDAQ. Yes, it was a down day for the markets, but hardly "brutal". Brutality is being reserved for next week.

... weighted indexes. There’s a spreadsheet/chart floating around the internet somewhere... the top 10 (by weight) SP500 stocks by decade that does...

... the total number or portfolio chart goes up. View Quote I'm.... The account is in an sp500 index fund. Just yesterday she...

... roskakoriin koko homma: CAPITALCOM:SILVER Chart Image by risto_rossi Tuo nyt... mittareista muuten kannattaa mielestäni seurata SP500 vs. kultaa (ja hopeaa) sekä...

... times in the past the SP500 chart over several years proving that...

... stare at the fucking bitcoin chart all day long and STILL... look at bitcoin, silver and sp500. I don't use a lot...

... be shallow. On the daily chart I am lookisterng at a... my traderview screen on the SP500 and the other half on ...

submitted by /u/ComprehensivePea5894 to r/wallstreetbetsGER [link] [comments]

As you can see Enegy leader sector losing strenght while OIL is still high... interesting divergence submitted by /u/Lost-Debt8765 to r/MarketSurge [link] [comments]

If SP500 Hypothetical growth perform better than targeted fund in horizon of 10 years, what's the reason to choose target fund? Is it because just in case "market crash"? https://imgur.com/a/pAJvEWi submitted by /u/dumaseSz to r/Bogleheads [link] [comments]

submitted by /u/Then_Marionberry_259 to r/MetalsOnReddit [link] [comments]

Can anyone with access to these type of data tools make a chart that shows: Gold Price Median Household Income Median House Price SP500 CPI On the same chart from 1940 to present day? submitted by /u/ZealousidealLake759 to r/wallstreet [link] [comments]

submitted by /u/Then_Marionberry_259 to r/MetalsOnReddit [link] [comments]

Total job openings have completely cratered since the launch of AI. Ai is a human labor replacement too not a labor complementing tool . Do you why SP500 is making all time highs? Companies are laying off and not hiring so it means they are making more profits per unit of labor Tech bros are really fucking people over submitted by /u/armchairtycoon to r/recruitinghell [link] [comments]

slickcharts.com/sp500/returns Ignore the noise and keep investing. Sure they'll be bad moments, but 70% of the time the market is up. submitted by /u/-Mx-Life- to r/Bogleheads [link] [comments]

As comes as no surprise, literally every single prediction by every influencer and thought leader in the Bitcoin community about this cycle has been completely wrong. Bitcoin is only up ~53% on the 4 year chart... or ~36% adjusted for inflation. In the same amount of time, the S&P 500 is up 47% and gold is up 111%. This is easily the worst performing 4 year period in Bitocin's history. Really makes you wonder about the 4 year cycle and diminishing returns. Is Bitcoin cooked? At this rate, if we're lucky, we can expect ~$180-$200k top for the next halving cycle around late 2029, which I'm not eve sure Bitcoin will be able to outperform the SP500 or gold for that matter. I have to admit, I'm seriously disappointed in Bitcoin's performance. Adoption still isn't happening. I've been a Bitociner for 4.5 years now and I still do not know anyone who owns any. I never hear people talking about it in public or social settings and the few times I've ever brought it up, I get kinda blank stares. Not to mention, it's clear form on chain metrics that long term holders and OG's are selling. So much for HODL. Not really sure what to make of it at this point. I think $126k was the top and even if it wasn't, anything less than $160k isn't even double the previous ATH after adjusting for inflation. Some people think we'll make it to $140k this cycle, but even if we did, that's nothing to brag about. Is this what we're to expect for Bitcoin moving forward? 53% gains every 4 years? What a joke. submitted by /u/Vaginosis-Psychosis to r/CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

BTC sinkt und Gold kämpft trotzdem grad an. Worauf sind die Amis heute geil? Außer auf Speiseöl und Fritten? Tech? submitted by /u/Soft-Creme5030 to r/wallstreetbetsGER [link] [comments]

submitted by /u/senecadocet1123 to r/austrian_economics [link] [comments]

Good morning, afternoon, evening and night to all international apes, welcome back to another episode of dumb money where nobody here can read but they blame us when hedgefunds bleed. 3 months ago I made a post about what I expected to happen with the USD and how the FED would behave and how it would impact the markets and after some time I felt it was right to update that post and to see how my prediction/DD has played out as everyone as it is very easy on reddit to become an echo chamber so I encourage intelligent debate and also hilarious comments. I will try and keep this short and sweet so if anything doesn't make sense feel free to comment/message me or maybe it's worth reading the original DD to get more context on topics covered. I previously talked about how the bond market dictates what the fed does and predicted that trend to continue. The 2 year treasury yield vs Fed Fund Rate - 3 months ago. https://preview.redd.it/u9gqrmah6bl91.jpg?width=1168&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=939273be2b5bc3c149b087aa0fc46059506ee0bf The 2 year treasury yield vs Fed Fund Rate - now https://preview.redd.it/i5nroiz67bl91.png?width=1168&format=png&auto=webp&s=97734c33e406d5fd0c9ff4376b7df3b37a58430b This was an easy one to predict as this is what the FED always does. The real talking point here is when you zoom in.... https://preview.redd.it/zuyc6anq7bl91.png?width=1168&format=png&auto=webp&s=4c6fc639b62b4ee00f4336080b1ce20f699850b7 The two year has continued to push higher currently at 3.45% indicating that the bond market is expecting things to get worse especially when you compare that to the 10 year at 3.15% The FED fund rate is currently at 2.33% but last time it was over 2.5% the US/global economy almost went into a global recession and rates had to be dropped to stop the bleeding and then the pandemic hit which allowed the can to be kicked to the moon, but we may be on the verge of seeing that can come crashing back down to earth. The next fed meeting is later this month so we are due a rate hike to take it over the 2.5% threshold and possibly over 3%. ​ M2 vs The Market - 3 months ago https://preview.redd.it/z33ugmxvbbl91.jpg?width=1830&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fcedb9466c99b9f8b93a3f404b9373e365f01f05 M2 vs The Market - now https://preview.redd.it/k6py8tdrbbl91.png?width=1562&format=png&auto=webp&s=f880fd2acebbec2c5b39ee579e21377224e3d5aa I feel like this update really shows just how aggressively they are raising rates and really just how much of a big deal this next rate hike will be, I'm sure all clickbate articles will lead with something like "fed hikes rates to highest levels since 2008" which although true, the full story of that is they were on the way down at that point from a high of 5.25% set in 06. So anyone you know who has some dog shit loan/mortgage that's packaged as retail friendly because the repayments are lower, or down payments are lower are about to get bent over. ​ M2 x SP500 x USD - 3 months ago https://preview.redd.it/7akon2d7ibl91.jpg?width=1834&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4c3007964ca88d1233f286e63f9a4be73e8846a7 M2 x SP500 x USD - now https://preview.redd.it/0kgtxqdribl91.png?width=1562&format=png&auto=webp&s=00ca86b185eecdd42adba4adb761fe3bffe15f40 Now I expected the M2 to be reduced quite a bit more by now so the USD mooning this much already is pretty fucking terrifying The USD is already at a 20 year high, it's suprassed the EURO twice already and may even get close with the GBP. This is going to lead to more countries defaulting on debt joining a growing list which I've seen called a few things, The Debt Bomb or The Big Default as it's 2022 and we don't want to label I'm just going to say it's fucked mate, here's the list; Lebanon, Sri Lanka, Russia, Suriname, Zambia, Belarus. China is constantly on the verge and with the cost of living crisis (not a joke that is actually what it is called, guess they couldn't market the cost to fucking breath) sweeping european countries many others will follow and we know the US is in a recession if they want to address it or not is a whole other issue. ​ Using 1,000 basis point bond spreads as a pain threshold, analysts calculate $400 billion of debt is in play. Argentina has by far the most at over $150 billion, while the next in line are Ecuador and Egypt with $40 billion-$45 billion. BONUS TA ON THE USD https://preview.redd.it/3psifba7mbl91.png?width=1563&format=png&auto=webp&s=56369564d6e9b0ecbd3435a40872b2808f843d51 Huge cup and handle on the USD that is indicating to me that the USD has a lot higher still to go. This is only going to cause more havok on the global economy. For those who are unsure why a strong dollar is bad for the rest of the world. The dollar is the global reserve currency so most countries exchange in USD, if you borrowed at the lows shown here in the chart and now have to make repayments now the USD is up roughly 22%, to keep this simple the best case scenario for you here is your repayments now cost you 22% more, this doesn't factor in any additional change in valuation of the native currency which will likely have decreased as well, meaning repayments are even higher. ​ M2 Growth Vs Inflation - 3 months ago https://preview.redd.it/wwto2nknobl91.jpg?width=1734&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9712851e5e475d1a5de182f120c50c8ebc7d85cf M2 Growth Vs Inflation - Now https://preview.redd.it/rwqutbevobl91.png?width=1749&format=png&auto=webp&s=c992fb055a371b5b8adde3bd2e86ddab9ee82cff We have now had our cross over but M2 still has to drop and inflation is likely to decline before pushing much higher, if M2 is not controlled the US is at serious risk of hyperinflation and they aren't making enough progress to stop that. ​ In closing... ​ https://preview.redd.it/3ygvv7kzpbl91.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=36d4540e9a2b2bfa2586fe0a178338f888aad3bb Last time I was asked what is the relevance of this type of post when this is a GME sub and while there is no direct relationship with the USD and GME I draw comparisons to this situation and 2008 with VW. ​ https://preview.redd.it/eve493brrbl91.png?width=1562&format=png&auto=webp&s=0a4e5cb8a20f4e9bf2ecf76b50dd047ecc0f615b I'm interested to see what will be the catalyst for the squeeze there are many ways for things to kick off that's why I'm happily working my way to becoming an XXXX holder but the reason I pay attention to the bigger picture is simple for me, the mother of all crashes and the mother of all short squeezes will come hand in hand and every day they get a little closer. ​ Power to the motherfucking players. submitted by /u/AlternativeNo2917 to r/Superstonk [link] [comments]

submitted by /u/sp4cerat to r/wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

So you're telling me that we are about to enter a double recession with interest rates, or "cost of capital" near zero %? Do people realize how fucked we are? What determines a recessionary period is if REAL GDP is negative for a prolonged period of time. Generally that means that real demand goes negative. However, what we starting to see is nominal retail sales are up, while real retail sales are negative! See chart below (not adjusted to date). So, correct me if im wrong. A consumer spends on meat and chicken. both of them are 10 usd. Now, after a period of time, that same consumer only spends on meat, but the price is 20 usd for it. On the first time, GDP was 20, and on the second, still 20. However, the real GDP was 20, and now its 10. So the consumer is worse off at the end. So what does this mean? Well, if nominal sales are up, and real sales are down, real GDP is negative, but the consumer is spending more money. The biggest problem is that if we do enter a recessionary period, with interest rates close to zero, the FED cant do anything without falling into a liquidity trap or destroying the US dollar. What i mean is, lowering the interest rate with an already extreme level of M2 wont help the future economy as nominal sales will explode, and if inflation slows down, the increase in M2 wont cause real demand to increase because it will stay as cash, or bank reserves like 2008. So the FED will have to increase government budget with fake money, in an already overblown gov debt, to recover real demand and support the economy. We already know what happens next. 18 months later, 40 year high inflation. And imagine real wages after getting hit with 5-10 year long high inflation. How can real demand ever recover if wages cant increase faster than inflation? We can also think at it like this. If cost of debt is zero, and demand goes negative, than nobody wants it, and we are fucked. The US economy is extremely tight and it already looks like the bubble wants to burst. But it wont, cause every country in the world will follow the Dollar. And for the stock market, if you check the real value of sp500 by dividing it with M2, you will see how the bubble is still not done. The creation of money will always continue, and the value of the market will always go up. Traders will be burned, hedge funds will always win. https://preview.redd.it/dorc76sq2s191.png?width=850&format=png&auto=webp&s=e3b42dd9bac411ab17f6cda60e3e80dcb0b0ce3f submitted by /u/kookselslg to r/wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Take the few months leading up to the 08 crash and copy from there to the bottom of the crash. Overlay it onto the current chart, adjusting for time and % differences. The two charts are almost carbon copies, with the same interrupt on the inital reversal, the same distribution pattern directly after. We are at most days away from the start of a 25% crash according to the historical chart. ​ https://preview.redd.it/7u99vfxdetk81.png?width=1760&format=png&auto=webp&s=f070a5304664353ba3b18932f7718db6c2dd995b As such I just Yolod 90% of my portfolio into a certain 3x inverse ETF. I will be back with gain or loss porn. E: Position didnt meet min requirements but since its being requested, Proof submitted by /u/Tripartist1 to r/wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Sup Apes Elliot waves guy here doing my best to give you your daily dose of confirmation bias before the market opens! Not financial advice, I do unimaginable things with the crayons I get when I ask for a kid's menu at restaurants. NON NEGOTIABLE: PLAY THIS AS YOU READ (This song slowly builds, idk the vibes feel right https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvBfiRWLj_0) HAPPY FUCKING FATHERS DAY TO ALL YOU PAPA SILVERBACKS OUT THERE!!! If you're drunk from the day's festivities, this read will be even better. This might be a shorter post, I don't have too much to say as of yet other than I'm FUCKING JACKED 🚀 First off, I'm sure you all have seen the posts regarding bank stocks following and how we can potentially use that as a predictive indicator in terms of GME stock price. Great work here if you missed the post: https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o42bfm/big_banks_lost_a_lot_of_value_on_january_14th_but/ Let's take a look at the banks last week: OOOOF This might be one of my favorite screenshots of all time. Let's take a look at the banks back in the middle of january and see if that had any correlation to GME goin bananas at the end of January. death to big banks Given that GME's run peaked in the end of January, the conclusions that I draw from that are the banks hit a low around GME's peak. Granted, there were many outside factors at play back then, so this is all speculative. However, Let's look at GME in january now, pay close attention to the dates on the bottom and compare those to the banks above: ​ squeeze for ants ​ just from eyeballing, we can see that the banks seem to find their "bottom" as GME begins to lift off. Does this mean the banks will go to zero before GME squeezes? absolutely not, please don't think that will be the case. HOWEVER, we can assume that the financial sector and GME have some sort of inverse relationship, simply based on the erratic price action between the pairs. This time around, I'm expecting banks to continue to fall as GME rises. Can't halt buying this time around! ​ I haven't charted out the bank stocks because frankly I don't really care, I want the major banks at 0 personally, wouldn't pay a penny more to hold that garbage (all my homies hate the financials sector) Alright, so we can seemingly use the falling stock price of banks as a predictive indicator for upwards GME price action. Do note, I didn't conduct any significance tests or anything, this is all simply from comparing candle charts and looking for similarities/differences. ​ Speaking of comparing candle charts, something super interesting was brought to my attention in a group discussion, big shoutout to u/roman_axt for the hard work you ultra wrinkly brained primate. Below are images of GME and the movie company, courtesy of u/roman_axt as the arrows are drawn so the smoothest of brains can interpret what tf is going on. Do note, these are from about a week ago, so not all candles are up to date (if it even matters) movie company ​ GME The reason I bring this up is because some of my friends in the trading world (that only trade off price action mind you, they don't really understand the whole GME saga) noticed this as well. It APPEARS that the movie company and GME not only move in a somewhat similar/predictable pattern, but GME seems to be lagging behind by about 2 or so weeks. Do note, this is just an approximation from eyeballing, please take this all with a grain of salt and remember I am retarded. Here is a view sent to me by one of my good friends who noticed the same fishiness occurring (from mobile thinkorswim): ​ moveee stonk ​ gAmEsToNk now what REALLY has me jacked is the pattern lines up from a few weeks ago, when the movie stock was trading for sub $16/share. It then ran to upwards of 70+. I was able to predict the movie stock's relative high's and low's using EW as well, which I've gotta say is actually super exciting. I own none, BUT it worked on a seemingly "impossible" to time stock. Idk about you, but I don't believe in coincidences. Disclaimer, I hodl ZERO of the movie stock, I have always believed it was a distraction. the fact that the media is talking about it should tell you enough. Now let's tie this assumption into my GME elliot waves analysis, try not to get too jacked: 4hr As stated time and time again, we are in a 3 within a 3 within a 3, which is quite literally an elliot wave trader's wet dream. This setup is valid down to about 113, so I wouldn't worry about "is the structure still valid?" yes. yes it is. This is literally as bullish a setup you can get, all we need is a match to light the fuse. Our cycle 3 (white line) is targeting at the MINIMUM 440, though I would love to see the 1.618:1 ratio hit, as is most common for wave 3. This puts GME at roughly 582, though remember this is all pre squeeze. As always, the motto is simple. Buy hodl, sell for life changing money (not no 10k/share bullshit, 8 figures/share is life changing in my eyes, and that's just my floor). I'm not saying we will break into the 400+ range this week by any means, but man the stars are aligning for some crazy shit to go down. I'm fookin jacked m8. Lastly, let's take a look at SPY and the VIX, as we can use each as a tool to gauge not only sentiment, but potential fuckery before it happens. In my post regarding the SP500 and GME, I brought up how In the January squeeze, SPY took a fucking HIT as GME broke into the hundreds for the first time ever. Here's my view of SPY: 4hr NGL, SPY is kind of in no man's land right now. I'll have to see how we open to have a better idea of where it's going. By all means this COULD be the beginning of our long awaited bear market, but it could very well form an impulsive wave 1 to the upside to make for a final push to around 430 before shit hits the fan My OWN PERSONAL THESIS is that we will see the markets pumped to valhalla 1 last time to try and draw as many "suckers" in so wall street can offload the bag at the peak. Put yourself in their shoes, seems like a logical play to strike fear into everyone, then prop the markets up a bit longer to make everyone think its okay, then proceed to dump the bag on them Lastly, the VIX, the fear/volatility indicator: VIX Finished up 16% on friday? spicy. In one of my posts I mentioned how we can use the VIX to gauge when GME will potentially do something erratic. just compare the spikes of the VIX and GME, you'll see there's at least some correlation there. I mean shit, end of january? Clear as kenny's "for sale" sign on his marked down penthouse that he suddenly is in a rush to sell. wonder why? (I think it sold actually lol, even funnier). I'm preparing for the best while always expecting the worst. I'm never disappointed this way and always excited, 10/10 would recommend. June 30 is the end of the grace period for banks, worth noting. I'm expecting the VIX to FLY when that happens, though again, pure speculation. TLDR: worth the read. Banks falling is a potential indicator that GME will do some crazy shit, GME also appears to be lagging behind the movie stock. That part is pure speculation, but speculation is part of the fun part no? (Sorry the song doesn't fit perfectly, you'd be surprised how much time i spend trying to link a fitting song lol. as long as you're jacked, i consider this a job well done) ​ Now Imma go get high af so I'm well rested for MONDAY🚀 🚀 🚀 ​ edit: funny story cause y'all are fam, I went to the porsche dealer yesterday to test drive my post-moass whip, and the salesman googled me before I came in to make sure I wasn't some degenerate looking to crash their pristine GT4. I get there, and the salesman said he googled me and knew me as the elliot wave guy. Simulation confirmed. during the drive we talked about trading, I showed him my wave count, hopefully he got some GME. idk, random. Thought I'd share cause I thought it's a nice story. This movement is bigger than we can comprehend. EW guy is in the bio of my socials, so he put 2 and 2 together after googling my real name. Edit 2: proof I went and they let me drive the gt4: https://imgur.com/a/uzTn3OR submitted by /u/possibly6 to r/Superstonk [link] [comments]

Preamble: The ability of Congress Members to trade stocks has been controversial from the start. There have been multiple stories covering the 2020 congressional insider trading scandal where Congress Members allegedly used insider knowledge to trade large positions in stocks just before the coronavirus pandemic crash. But none of the articles talked about the financial implications of those trades and whether the retail investors could have front-run the market using the disclosed data. Basically, what I wanted to know was How much did the Senators save by offloading their positions before the crash and could I have done the same? Where is the data from: efdsearch.senate.gov For my previous analysis into congressional trading, I used data from senatestockwatcher.com. But not all the transactions are captured on the website and I wanted to match exactly with the trades reported by famous journals. efdsearch.senate.gov is the United States official website where Senator, former Senator, and candidate financial disclosure reports are available. Some of the data is available as a scanned file and some in normal HTML format. I had to manually transcribe most of the data used in this analysis. In case you are wondering about the time delay between the actual transaction and reporting, Congress Members are expected to report the transaction within 30 days. The median delay in reporting that I observed for all the trades was 28 days. All the trades and my analysis are shared as a google sheet at the end. Analysis: There are multiple factors at play here. Timeline: On January 24, 2020, the Senate Committees on Health and Foreign Relations held a closed meeting with only Senators present to brief them about the COVID-19 outbreak and how it would affect the United States. I am considering this as the start time for my analysis. Any sale made by the senators after this point up to Feb 26 is considered. (I did not consider sales beyond that point as SPY dropped 8% during that week. My assumption here is it’s realistic for any person be it a normal investor or a Senator to panic sell after seeing that drop). For reference, SPY dropped an additional 25% over the next 3 weeks! Senators under consideration: I have considered trades done by 4 senators in my analysis. I have focused on these 4 as all of them were investigated by Justice Department and the FBI following the trading scandal. Richard Burr Kelly Loeffler James M Inhofe David A Perdue https://preview.redd.it/owzxgiv17g371.png?width=751&format=png&auto=webp&s=fbb5ec251a813bfcaf6d954b3992263b167ebdbd David Perdue sold 44 times ($3.49 MM) in the 33 days following the closed senate meeting. Interestingly James Inhofe only transacted 8 times but the combined value of shares he sold was a whopping $4.12MM. The most ironic part is that Richard Burr who was under investigation the longest and had to step down from the intelligence committee due to the scandal had the least dollar volume in the transaction ($1.1MM). Results: Before we dive into the overall amount saved by the Senators and the retail investor side of the analysis, let’s see what were the best trades made by the Senators during that time period. https://preview.redd.it/zzkp2rh37g371.png?width=1038&format=png&auto=webp&s=02669d67934a2bc1e4b0dc54f5a4ff97860c8b0e David Perdue absolutely killed it with his stock plays. He is present 7 times in the top 10 list and his best play, Caesars Entertainment reduced 83% after he sold his position. Fun Fact: if a stock reduces 83%, it has to go up 488% just to reach back to its initial price. Another interesting observation from the chart is that senators mainly sold stocks related to the entertainment and hospitality industries which were the most severely affected industries due to the pandemic. The above chart showcases the amount of money saved by the Senators due to front running the market crash. David Perdue saved an insane $2.2MM with his stock sales. I also kept a multiple of annual Senate salary to showcase the scale of impact they made to their portfolio because of the trades. Finally, we come to the million-dollar question. Was it possible for the retail investors to follow these trades and front-run the crash? This is where the analysis gets a bit tricky. 88% of the transactions were reported by March 3rd but if you consider it in dollar values, only 52% of the transactions were reported (some of the high-value transactions were reported only after the crash). But if you were an astute investor, you could have observed a stark difference in what the Senators were saying and how they were trading. For Eg. Richard Burr reassured the public that the US was well prepared for the pandemic but then sold $1MM worth of stocks in the next two weeks. I know that hindsight is 20/20 but if you could have connected these two dots, then you could have saved up to 25% of your portfolio before the crash. Limitations of analysis: There are some limitations to the analysis. a. I have only used one black swan event for the analysis. A better method would be to analyze the stock trading pattern over 3-4 major crashes and see if any pattern emerges. But the current limitation is that efdsearch.senate.gov has only data since 2012. b. There is no disclosure for the exact amount of money invested by Congress Members. The disclosure is always in ranges (e.g., $100k – $200k). So, for calculating the transaction amount, I have taken the average of the given range. Conclusion I intentionally left out the party affiliation of the Senators as I did not want our political views clouding our financial judgment. I could not find a single example where a retail investor or an institutional investor or even a hedge fund leveraging this information to make their trades (it might just not be public!). Another possible explanation here is that Senators might just have superior stock trading capability as none of them were indicted for this and all investigations are closed now. However you view it, this analysis in addition to my last analysis (which proves that Congress Members have better returns than SP500) showcases that there is significant money to be made by following their trades closely! Google Sheet containing all the data: here Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. submitted by /u/nobjos to r/wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

THIS IS FOR YOU MY APES!! None of this is financial advice. I'm a retarded ape playing with crayons and keys. This message should reach every ape to help! CONTENTS: PART 1 US DOLLAR BACKING OVERVIEW OF KENNY'S/SHITADEL'S FUCKERY EXPOSED! HOW IS KENNY WASHING THE MONEY? TRUST BONDS: The basket of bonds INFITINE MONEY GLITCH!!! BIG BANKS ARE HOLDINGS COMPANIES???? WHAT IS THAT? PART 2 HOW AND WHY TO BANKRUPT COMPANIES QUICK RECAP MIXING GME IN: THE MASSIVE REAL ESTATE SCAM! KENNY SCAMMING AROUND THE WORLD WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE COMPANY GOES BANKRUPT?? THE PANDEMIC STIMULUS: The beginning of the end of Kenny KENNY'S FUCK UP!! PART 3 THE ENDGAME: INEVITABLE! NO FUD SUMMARY TL;DR1: BURRY CONCERN: HYPERINFLATION LIBOR to SOFR TL;DR2 : ---------------------------------------- CONTINUE!! PART 3 --------------------------------------- NEW!!!! KENNY KENNY KENNETH: A little bit of history.. “Kenny, Kenny…. Let’s all learn a little about Kenny past. Kenneth Cordele Griffin was born October 15, 1968. For a majority of his life he attended Boca Raton Community High School. It was a public school, where he was the head of the finance club… No, actually he was president of Math Club. His investing career actually was initiated at the Cabot House as an undergraduate at Haaaaarvard. He must have learned to pay off the right people as he was able to get a satellite dish placed on the roof. His initial ride was with convertible bonds, with was powered from his late grandma to the tune of 265 K. Not a bad chunk of change to begin your investing career. So where did Ken break out & how did he do it? Well no other way than to short stock and have the stock market crash of ’87. Kenny pushin’ them shorts this whole time. It’s too cold to be wearin’ shorts in those Chicago winters. Da’ Frostbite appears to be setting in.” https://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/June-2011/The-File-on-Citadels-Ken-Griffin/ FOOL ME ONCE..It’s on me! FOOL ME TWICE..Really? Courtesy of that amazing silverback, you know who! ————————————— THE ENDGAME: INEVITABLE! NO FUD Kenny now is trapped. Now we known his game!! We also know he IS SHORTING THE the 0.01%, the government and the economy!!! Why is Kenny want to do all this? THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT!!! He wants to be THE KING!! To big to be touched! He always wanted to be a bank and be part of the 0.01% Putting my Tin Hat on this might sound crazy but…. It does align with Kenny goals! Why to move to texas? a) Because in texas he can apply for a banking license and become a bank (state banks have lot less regulations than federal banks) b) scoop up all the cheap commercial real estate c) becomes a massive player in the banking environment WHY DOES KENNY WANTS TO BE A BANK SO BADLY? A state bank is lot less regulated than a federal bank. A BANK IS THE ONLY PIECE MISSING IN KENNY PUZZLE This way he will eliminate the middle man, the bank does everything for his fuckery. Having a bank means, he will be the one setting the price of the appraisals, also giving the loans, then also liquidating the asset and auctioning controlling the prices to buy everything at the price he wants. Being able to always inflate the appraisals and pocket the difference everytime more and more! And buying the real estate dirt cheap always! Perfect set up! Ohhhh the banks game!!! The 0.01% didn’t let him in because he’s too greedy and try to absorb everything, also he wasn’t born into the 0.01%.** he doesn’t have the surname or the generous gramma. So then he said fuk it! I’m going to be the king and bigger than anybody!! Ambition much Kenny? Sorry Kenny! You can’t buy your way into the 0.01% club, you need to born with the surname and Griffin isn't cutting it. Kenny no likey 0.01 percento nada! He’s been issuing years after years of those bad bad useless trust bonds and everyone buys them thinking are solid gold from Shitadel! And pocketing so much real estate dirt cheap with all this fuckery! HOW THE SEC CAN CATCH HIM? Follow the transactions!! Open those bonds full of naked shares that’s are imaginary!! Check on the Treasury (bills, notes and bonds) transactions, how many they have, how many they had and touch Kenny hands. Also check where the money they used for Treasuries come from! Why are they OVER SHORTING business? Open your eyes and realize that they are targeting business that are real estate heavy for a reason!! There is clear market manipulation CLEAR There is clear MEDIA manipulation, hundreds of examples Go and check the loan contracts and compare the loan values of appraisal given versus the real values of the properties! Follow the money and follow the real estate. Follow companies like this IOR (clearly the worse website I’ve seen). Only takes 1 minute to see this website to know this is a scam! And this company is managing a 51M market cap and can’t even make a half decent website? PLEASE!!! How dumb they think we are seriously!! https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IOR http://www.incomeopp-realty.com/management.html I 5 year old can make a better website than that!! ————- How’s is the 0.01% is fighting back?? Creating a bubble too big to handle in GME so they can breaks the Citadel (Kenny and friends) and margin call them before the Federal Reserve implodes!!! or exposing his scam and making rules and also by forcing him to cover the shorts!! it’s all a lie and fake at the end of the day! They need to come up with firewalls (801/002 and others) and ways to protect all the banks and members of the DTCC that are not part of the Shitadel and friends scam!! That’s why all those rules have been coming in place. Once everything is ready Shitadel and friends are gonna be forced to cover their shorts and naked shorts everywhere. (The bubble is so big that they are gonna get margin called, my floor is $15 million btw). Kenny will have to cover institutional shorts, retail shorts, ETFs as well as those garbage trust bonds full of empty shells. Remember that Kenny need to return those borrowed naked IOUs and put a real share in every empty shell on peoples accounts and bonds!! But there is more! Don’t forget the bets! **Forgot about the FTD plus all the puts accumulated for years that expire 1/16, 4/16 (yes DFV day!!) and 7/17!!?? Thanks for the correction btw!!😍 That's another massive fukery scam going on and is HUGE! Federal Bank and friends need to break Citadel before Citadel breaks them, the economy and the government by scamming everyone and bankrupting companies!! ---------------------------- **NEW GOOOD! EDIT 2: Clues Clues Clues……. A totally jacket MAGNIFICENT specimen of a APE dropped this amazing little jewel on the comment!!! Fuuuuuuuuuukkkk. This is your chance to DIG AND DIG I’m a bit tired but you definitely can do your own post and DD about anything or all of this!! “- Ashcraft, Adam B. and Gooriah, Kunal and Kermani, Amir, Does Skin‐in‐the‐Game Affect Security Performance? (March 1, 2017). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2437574 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2437574 Key paper: Griffin, John M. and Priest, Alex, Is COVID Revealing a CMBS Virus? (August 10, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3671162 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3671162 Shao, Ruoyu, Examination of Potential Misrepresentation in CMBS (June 11, 2015). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2727038 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2727038 Wong, Maisy, CMBS and Conflicts of Interest: Evidence from a Natural Experiment on Servicer Ownership (May 12, 2015). The Wharton School Research Paper No. 82, Jacobs Levy Equity Management Center for Quantitative Financial Research Paper, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2605538 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2605538 - CMBS and the Fed…is there a crisis brewing in the office? https://www.ftserussell.com/research/cmbs-and-fedis-there-crisis-brewing-office There are honestly maybe 6 more papers but I wanted to distill to these. Sites: The article that led me to every CMBS paper and ETF paper written: https://theintercept.com/2021/04/20/wall-street-cmbs-dollar-general-ladder-capital/ CMBS Disputes on the Horizon? - https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/cmbs-disputes-on-the-horizon-april-2021-9296023/ Increases in forbearance agreements: https://www.alston.com/en/insights/publications/2020/04/forbearance-agreements-in-the-age-of-covid-19/ Issuance Activity and Interconnectedness in the CMBS Market - https://www.sec.gov/files/DERA_WP_Knyazeva-Lin-Park_IssuanceActivityInterconnectednessCMBS%20.pdf Trepp, a group that measures CMBS delinquency rates, suddenly had a change of tone last year in their delinquency reporting and openly suggested in their April 2020 report that "it's time to throw the old way of looking at the data out the window". They've reported economically health numbers since then. Say what you will about the Kroll Bond Agency's shenanigans, but they had an interesting report in Jan '21.: https://www.kbra.com/documents/report/43448/cmbs-trend-watch-december-2020” BOOM!! Go NUTS APES!!! Grab a shovel and start digging!!!! Someone has to do it, can be you!! Another piece to keep digging!! https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n2ov32/investigation_weekend_citadel_has_been_working/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf END OF THE EDIT2: —————————————————— SUMMARY Holy fuc%#ing shit!!! Apes are the last line of defense!!!!! PROTECT THE ECONOMY FROM PREDATOR KENNY G!!! Now remember, when was the last time Uncle Sam didn’t get his money? I can’t remember.. Because Uncle Sam always gets his money and he’s coming for Kenny and our tendies!! All of them!! This is Citadel (Kenny and friends) vs the DTCC, Federal Reserve and the banks and the PLANET OF THE APEEEEEES!! Im seriously JACKED TO THE TITS!! I wouldn’t be surprised if Kenny is in the deep with something around 2000%+ SI no joke. Remember Trump calling Ken out in his speech? Kenny is hiding all his money somewhere. Now we know where: art, real estate, and more. Whose money? The Federal Reserve and retail's money! So far he's been kicking the cans with fukery like this. Kenny and Citadel have liquidity to fight for now, but the machine stopped printing. Now it’s just matter of time, and some MELON just unfolded the entire fuckery! As an aside/addendum to all this...but for the sake of not making this long post even longer... Im making post 2 on GME subs. Next part will talk about something as important that is change from LIBOR to SOFR as well as The Big Short's Michael Burry's warnings on hyperinflation. This will be a part of the world history, in the end I think the economy will be alright thanks to ape's stimulation, dont be scared (READ PART 2). ---------------------------- TL;DR 1: Kenny is in big trouble for trying to scam the big big money (bigger money than Bezos, Gates and Musk combined) and everyone else to own the banks/Federal Reserve. Machine no printing for him anymore so he’s been drained and his game uncovered. Apes need to be patient and keep BUYING AND HOLDING!!! The end is near. ---------------------------------- BURRY CONCERN: HYPERINFLATION This is quite a handful matter to talk about, I encourage you to do your own research cuz i might be wrong or this might be incomplete. But im gonna give it a go! FOR YOU MY AMAZING APES! Dr Michael Burry (we all remember him for predicting the 2008 housing market collapse and the big short (Christian bale - Batman!!)) He has been warning us for a while about a highly probably hyperinflation Quote from the article: “Burry has been sounding the alarm on inflation. He warned investors last week to “prepare for inflation” as the US economy reopens and receives a fresh round of stimulus. He also compared America’s current trajectory to Germany’s path to hyperinflation in the 1920s.” https://www.businessinsider.com.au/big-short-michael-burry-warren-buffett-inflation-dangers-warning-investors-2021-2?r=US&IR=T The effects of inflation causes different ripple effects, usually increases the banks interest rates reducing the amount of demand of loans, among many many other side effects. Also causes products such as goods or services to rise. That will reduce the buying power of a currency. ---- CURRENCY BUYING POWER AND DEPRECIATION Imagine you having $5 and being able to buy a train ticket for $3 and an ice cream for $2. When inflation rises, means that the buying power of your money is gonna be reduced, now the train ticket is $3.50 and the ice cream is $2.30, suddenly with your $5 you can only get the train ticket and you are short $0.80 for the ice cream :((. ---- RIPPLE IN THE MORTGAGE LIKE 2008 The ripples effect also affects other things like loans or mortgages. If you have a subprime loan or mortgage with adjustable rates (this mortgages where the ones that caused the 2008 housing collapse trough swaps) and the interests rates of the banks go up, suddenly my mortgage payments will go up, a lot of people that doesn’t have enough money to pay that different will stop paying and the mortgages will default. This affects on auto loans, student loans and more. Well… with hyperinflation… like the prefix hyper says, it’s BIGGER! So imagine that scenario bigger. Possibly worse that 2008!!! And the rates and indexes like the SP500 look high. https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mq2iam/just_hold_on_tight/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf Seems scary right? It’s not!! Check one of my posts for 2 weeks ago talking about this (I made it when I didn't know as much so dont hit me too hard on that one!! :P) https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mqmj5e/the_how_is_this_gonna_play_out_game_my_prediction/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf Everything is going to be fine and if something this is very healthy for the economy. The best thing that we need right now is to stop Kenny from creating bubbles of fake shares everywhere!! Its a parasite inside the market! Let’s keep going, gets better and better! Read my TL;DR further down. EDIT 4: WARNING WARNING ON ETFs STREET!! "ETFs are linked like a web. We've had two flash crashes amplified by them in the last 11 years, and their behavior during last year's pandemic accelerated the crash. CMBS are potentially a bowling ball that's going to crash through the spider web of ETFs.” Thank you you beautiful ape for this info, you know who!! Check this key article: https://theintercept.com/2021/04/20/wall-street-cmbs-dollar-general-ladder-capital/ Check this key research paper: Is COVID Revealing a CMBS Virus? https://ssrn.com/abstract=3671162" BIG WARNING FELLOWS!! EMBRACE FOR IMPACT! Rocky ride to the moon, but we are getting there don’t be scared! ———————————— LIBOR to SOFR Take all this this a grain of salt, Probably make a couple of mistakes. READ THE CHAOS THEORY DD to have the proper DD about this. (recommend the whole saga!!) Changes from Libor to SOFR were meant to happen in 2022, but guess what? They pushed to to June 2021!!! https://webstorage.paulhastings.com/Documents/PDFs/timeline-for-libor-transition.pdf?sfvrsn=363ea8ab_2 This is massive!! Why? Banks used LIBOR to manipulate their self created and self reported interest rates in order to be favorable and give away money left right and center. Where did tons of that money go? To HEDGEFUNDS!!! They borrowed money from banks for almost no interest rates no matter how the economy and inflation was, including during an unprecedented pandemic!!! For what? SHORTING Kenny style! Wtf?? Now you wonder why during a pandemic the whole market was “healthy” and up and growing right?? Inflating business with naked shares... Using the same shitadel strategy but with money from the banks and washing everything trough citadel MM, trust bonds and dumping all the garbage in the ETFs and the trust bonds buyers. Always betting in bankrupting the companies and then rebuying them to own pieces of the banks/federal reserve. So what all this changes mean? With Libor banks suppose to self regulate and self report and give interest rates to their customer (business, institutions, people or the government) according to how the economy is, indicators like inflation among other things. Read about it here. The banks have been manipulating this FOR A LONG TIME. Especially after 2008. I guess they wanted to recoup their loses and because being HOLDINGS now, they wanted to be bigger and bigger. BOOM! The greed They got too greedy.... :( Even during the pandemic they gave away loans at very low and favorable rates, it was more than obvious that the economy wasn't right... they needed to raise the rates! They didn't!! Now they are full of this bad bad loans with subpremiun and adjustable rates, but everything was ok as long as they kept on showing those fake interest rates right? SOFR arrives!! SOFR was almost implemented on 2019 and almost caused a massive crisis!! BUBBLE ALERT! why? Lets find out what SOFR means What is SOFR? https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/libor-transition-to-sofr-a-brief-9557503/ Thanks to a fellow ape in the comments for providing this link ❤️ The secured overnight financing rate, or SOFR, is an influential interest rate that banks use to price U.S. dollar-denominated derivatives and loans. The daily secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) is based on transactions in the Treasury repurchase market, where investors offer banks overnight loans backed by their bond assets. So the interest rates are not going to be self reported by the banks, but instead the government is going to provide those rates to the banks based on the repo market. They believe is a better option than letting the banks manipulate the rates for their advantage. This magnificent ape made a really good post about it and thats how I found out about this problem, all credit to him!! https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mseyai/chaos_theory_the_final_connection/ FROM THE CHAOS THEORY: Introducing SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate)!!!!! This is a MASSIVE 200 trillion dollar transition that will take place over the next few years. OH and it almost imploded the entire fucking market the first time it was attempted to be implemented back in 2019 https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/what-happened-in-money-markets-in-september-2019-20200227.htm Definition brilliant ape make the CHAOS THEORY and explains a lot of what im saying here. A MUST READ https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mseyai/chaos_theory_the_final_connection/ I'll let the rest to the CHAOS THEORY, very well explained. That's why Kenny is shorting the TREASURY BILLS, NOTES ands BOND! He wants to profit from the banks and government to be insolvent and default!! QUOTED FROM CHAOS THEORY: As time progresses I believe we will see more evidence of multiple parties attempting to deleverage their positions before 2023. Coincidentally GameStop has just paid off all their debt that was due that exact year. So this becomes a two pronged problem; Assets are being re-hypothecated which are being used as collateral Banks are providing absurd interest rates off the old LIBOR system instead of SOFR; this has resulted in the taking on a position that will be extremely difficult to get out of. As we can see they're fighting against these changes through politics, but it appears they've brought in Gary Gensler to kick some ass. We are going to be fine, a few blows to the economy and crisis but everything is going to turn down and de leverage. ———- EDIT 3: Check the latest SEC speech, they seem to be focusing a lot on Libor!!! We might be onto something…. Or I’m I just a cOnSpIrAtOr QaNoN sHiLl!!! SEC speech on 28 th of April!! https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/werewolves-of-change ----------------------------------- IM JACKED TO THE TITS! TL;DR2 : This is my latest perception and final conclusion of this beautiful saga! Well.... Battle of GME is basically going to bankrupt citadel. BOOM! It’s going be the biggest wealth distribution in history. BOOM! There is going to be a domino and a ripple effect. (It’s not all about GME, GME is just the tip of the iceberg). Kenny has been creating bubbles of money naked with things that does exist to Scam business and retail (among others). Its going to burst, when the bubbles burst, will have repercussions everywhere. A lot of tendies are going to the people. That will create a lot of money going around, not just for apes but for everyone, apes will be buying things and paying off their debts and all that. That will help reducing the leverage. Hyperinflation is going to hit, but the government is going to be able to take it and absorb a big part trough (TIPS) https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tips.asp People and apes are not going to care much about the raise in pricing (inflation) because we will have money and wealth around, huge economy stimulus (Thanks you citadel for the tendies!). A huge chunk of money will come to the banks initially, people paying their credit card and loans and mortgages. Then tax will come and Uncle Sam will get half of our tendies (if helps the economy not to boom boom im fine!). Then things will be stable then and hopefully lot cleaner after. This is necessary and healthy to Happen, stock is trading sideways to prepare for all that. This is why I think is low volume and trading sideways lately Stock is trading sideways because RC needed to to pay the debt and be free from banks leverage. Also gather money for the transformation, ! he already did !. Also trading still low allow more Apes to jump in!! RC care for us and everyone. Ohhh PAPA RC. The DTCC needs time to firewall and protect the banks from Kenny and friends predators. Once everything is in place and the scam is suppressed, the huge winners are going be the banks and the federal reserve. But us apes going to ride the rollercoaster all along getting tendies!! I won’t be surprised if the catalyst is RC announcing a recall, investigation or a crypto dividend on the meeting. My smooth brain tells me the catalyst is the Libor to SOFR, always been for me. The voting is big because they will have grounds to show the amount of shorting and fukery. So be patient and don’t be scared. HOLD THE LINE! This needs to be done and Kenny needs to be stopped because is making bubbles everywhere in the market is damaging shareholders, the companies and THE ECONOMY!! ---------------------------------------------------- Thanks!! EDIT 1: Kenny Kenny Kenny…… some history of Kenny!!! EDIT 2: Clues and pieces so you can DIG DIG and make your own DD!!! It’s time to wake up and keep this baby rolling!! EDIT 3: check on the new SEC speech on 28 th of April!! https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/werewolves-of-change Thanks to magnificent u/sharkbaitlol for providing the info. You guys check his work THE CHAOS THEORIES that’s a must read DD! EDIT 4: WARNING WARNING ON ETFs!!! Look at this magnificent ape work! Holy shit…. https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/n0i9tw/the_etf_seesaw_part_1/ None of this is financial advice. I’m a retarded ape just rambling words. I’m crazy and a horrible man. So don’t believe or listen to anything I say. Don’t trust me and do your own research and fact check, I did and I’m jacked to the tits!! EDIT 5: I’m I wrong???? https://www.propublica.org/article/whistleblower-wall-street-has-engaged-in-widespread-manipulation-of-mortgage-funds https://www.propublica.org/article/whistleblower-wall-street-has-engaged-in-widespread-manipulation-of-mortgage-funds PART 1 PART 2 BONUS!!: Remember "I am not a CAT!"? https://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/CAT WE ARE THE LAST LINE OF DEFENSE AGAINST THIS SCAM! HOLD THE LINE!!!! This is not financial advice at all! Just a crazy melon 🍉 playing with some crayons. I eat the sometimes yummmm 💎🙌——> 🦍🦧🚀🌝!! If you are not done reading…. I recommend this work….. u/atobitt good DD to inform yourself u/sharkbaitlol chaos theories connect a lot of dots u/toffis Now this chart does look that crazy now? https://www.docdroid.net/Q8qCCvM/rgme-pokes-at-kenny-g-pdf submitted by /u/sydneyfriendlycub to r/GME [link] [comments]

Preamble: I suppose all of us have come across an analyst report while doing DD on a stock. Most of the reports that are freely available to the average investor are either dated or limited in access (we only have the buy/sell ratings and not the deep dive on the stock). According to this Bloomberg report, Goldman Sachs charges $30K for access to its basic research, JP Morgan $10K per report, and Barclays charging up to $455K for its equity research package. What I wanted to know was if you actually pay for the reports and then follow their recommendations, would you be able to beat the market in the long run? Surprisingly, there were no trackers following the performance of analyst picks over the long term and I decided to build one. Where is the data from: Yahoo Finance. I used yfinance API to pull all the analyst recommendations made from 2011 for S&P500 companies. While this is in no way a complete list of recommendations, I felt that the data I had was deep enough for the analysis. Both Bloomberg and Quandl provide richer data but costs more than $20K for their subscription and also won’t allow you to share the recommendations with the public. (I have shared all the recommendations and my analysis in an Excel Sheet at the end) Analysis: There were a total of 66,516 recommendations made by analysts over the last 10 years for S&P500 companies. Following is the split of recommendations. Rating # of records % of total Buy 35,158 52.9% Hold 27,033 40.6% Sell 4,041 6.1% Others (Cautious, Speculative etc.) 284 0.4% For the three sets, I calculated the stock price change across four periods. a. One week after recommendation b. One month after recommendation c. One quarter after recommendation I benchmarked the change against S&P500 and also checked what percentage of recommendations increased in value compared to the benchmark. I limited my time horizon to one quarter since analysts usually create reports every quarter and I did not want to overlap different recommendations. Finally, I also checked which banks made the best recommendations over the last decade. Results: Performance of Buy Recommendations Avg Change in Price Stock SPY Change over SPY One Week 0.5% 0.3% +40.7% One Month 1.7% 1.4% +23.2% One Quarter 4.9% 4.0% +22.8% Out of the 35K buy recommendations made by the analysts, the average increase in stock price across the time periods were better than the SPY benchmark with one week returns bettering SPY by more than 40%. Adding to this, I also benchmarked the percentage of times analyst made the call and the stock price went up vs the SP500 index. Performance of Sell Recommendations: Avg Change in Price Stock SPY Change over SPY One Week 0.3% 0.3% -7.3% One Month 1.8% 1.5% +17.1% One Quarter 5.4% 4.0% +36.0% Sell recommendations given by analysts definitely have a short-term impact on the stock price. As we can see from the chart, the one-week performance of stocks that were recommended as a sell was lower than that of the benchmark. But this trend does not hold over the long term with stocks having sell recommendations significantly outperforming the market over the time period of more than one month. Another thing to note here is that on average even after the sell recommendation, the stock price did not fall. (ie, the returns were not negative) Which investment banks made the best recommendations?: you can find the chart here I analyzed the returns of the recommendations made by different banks. The most number of recommendations were made by Morgan Stanley with them making more than 2300 recommendations in the last 10 years. From the above chart, you can see that overall, the best returns were made by Barclays with their recommendations beating SP500 by more than 125% in one-week gains and more than 30% in quarterly gains. How much money should you be managing to profitably buy analyst reports? I did a rough calculation on the amount of assets you need to be managing to make sense for actually paying for the reports. From the above analysis, we could see that the analyst reports beat the market by 23%, and on average full access to analyst reports of a bank will set you back by $500K per year. Putting in the above numbers, you need to have a whopping $19MM of assets under management just to break even. Going on a conservative side, to comfortably make profits and not to have the analyst report fee considerably impact your returns, you should be managing at least $100MM. Limitations of analysis: The above analysis is far from perfect and has multiple limitations. First, this is not the full list of recommendations made by these companies and are just the ones that were updated on Yahoo Finance. I also could not get any information on price targets made by the analysts to supplement my analysis. Finally, even though this analysis covers the last 10 years, it had been predominantly a bull run and this can bias the results in favor of the banks. This aspect could also be seen by observing how poorly the sell recommendations made by the banks faired. Conclusion: I started the analysis skeptical of the returns generated by recommendations made by analysts. There has been a lot of rumors and speculations about whether analysts have access to information the public doesn’t. Whatever the case may be, the above analysis shows that if you have access to the analyst reports, you definitely can beat the market over the long run. Whether it's financially viable or not to access the reports depends on the amount of asset you have under management, in this case at least $100MM! Excel Sheet link containing all the recommendations and more detailed analysis: here Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and in no way related to any investment banks showcased above. submitted by /u/nobjos to r/stocks [link] [comments]

Well…. According to all the DD and info I’ve been reading for the last 4 months (including all the DD and post made) GME is gonna get into an inflection point soon (IMO as soon as all the DTCC and SEC “firewall” rules come in place. Yes I’m looking at your 801/002 !!) and the bubble is gonna burst (right now the margin call of the bubble must be around 300-450 according to how hard the try to stop the price going up in mid March around $350 and the bubble is lot bigger since). https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mkvgew/why_are_we_trading_sideways_why_is_the_borrow/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf This will cause to pretty much every other stock in the SP500 and the entire market to drop due to the liquidation of assets and portafolios of the shorts/HF (citadel and friends) that they have in other stocks and places. GME is disconnected from the market and the negative beta shows it, but the shorts big portfolios will impact other stocks and indexes. Once the clearing institution receive the signal they will start balancing the books and we will squeeze (you know how’s is gonna play). We can see here the current levels are off the chart https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mq2iam/just_hold_on_tight/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf The effect on the stock and SP500 is gonna cause a ripple effect and cause another problems and this includes the bubble that there is (huge) in the 10 year treasury bonds (just as michael Burry predicted) that will collapse as well and will give shorts tons of money and drive the government illiquid. Don’t forget China owns about 6% of those bonds. this is what Michael Burry has been warning us https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mil875/michael_burry_handed_us_the_missing_piece_on_a/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf The money machine will go brrrrr to print GME money and to cushion the treasury bonds. That will cause too much money to be circulating around. hyperinflation This will cause inflation and hyperinflation, the usual cure to hyperinflation for banks is to limit and stop borrowing money around of all sorts to people by raising the interests heaps. Increasing interest rates will cause a lot of loans to default especially the ones with adjustable rates since people won’t be able to pay them anymore (interest too high). The whole economy including the entire world economy is gonna receive a big blow. Massive spread of wealth. Bubbles hurting everywhere. That is gonna last for a couple or few months until the government start collecting taxes (and start receiving taxes from other sources when apes start spending). the calm after the storm Apes will start spending and buying, returning the money to the banks and to the system, especially after they will use that money firstly to pay all the debts, a lot of those mortgages will be paid and that will relief a bit the bubble. Once the government claim the tax that’s almost 50% of apes money coming back to them plus all the money apes spend in houses, cars and basically giving money away around them. The economy inflation will decrease and things will be cheaper, the economy will be greatly stimulated and a new system will come in place, more regulation for this not to happen again (hope for a more transparent, blockchain, fair system live 24/7). The economy will be better than ever since the money is spread around and not sitting in some people big cushion banks (apes will make business, create technology, make the world a better place!!). Cryptos will be the saving grace of currencies Decentralized currencies like crypto’s will be the least affected in the market chaos and will fall at first (due to the liquidation of HFs and all the fuckery) but then will skyrocket after lots of apes will spend money in cryptos due to lose trust in the centralized market. what to buy to fight inflation? There will be more interest in buying land outright without banks involved, buying gold, art, assets, invest in strong currencies and cryptos (after they recover from this fall) to protect the money and other forms of currency due to the devaluation of the dollar. conclusion This is how I see the game playing for the future. I might make this a DD since I actually like what I wrote hahahah. This is no financial advice, just a regarded ape playing with his logical Crystal ball!! If you like what you read please give it a nice upvote or a nice award so more people can see this. Happy to reply to any comment like in my previous post. “We are not them” -snuffles (Rick and morty) let’s not become them! Please promise me apes that you will do you with your tendies, that together we will make this world a better place. My plan is to try and give away some money to people under the promise to spend 1 hour of everyday trying to make the world a better place, however they want. But under a promise to make one hour of everyday to the world. Much love for everyone! Please let me know if I’m using the wrong flair!! Edit: I’ll be adding all the supporting DD links as I’m collecting them, need more I gather all the DD I read for each bit and piece. Edit 2: few apes told me not invest in diamonds, it’s not a good option anymore because there is a company that manipulates the price of them and has the monopoly. Also they can be produced artificially almost to perfection now. Edit 3: clarifying the negative beta bit. submitted by /u/sydneyfriendlycub to r/Superstonk [link] [comments]

S&P 500 Since 1950 - 7 crashes Hi guys just wanted to put things in perspective for you all since some of you seem to be quite nervous with the recent week of stock movement. I've summarised a list all stock market crashes since 1950. There has been 7 stock market crashes since 1950, averaging one every 10 years. The stock market crashes ranges from inflation (10%+), to oil price rises (4x) due to war, dot com bubble, housing market collapse, covid-19 etc. The graph is a log graph meaning that the space changes are proportional to the percentage change. This is useful for looking at long term charts since the % change for a dollar increase is smaller as the index value goes up. The S&P 500 has averaged a compound annual growth rate of 8.22% since 1950. This is illustrated by the trend lines, and as you can see the S&P 500 is trading right in the middle of the range (the two blue trend lines). I noted a few reasons in the box for each crash for a brief understanding of why it had happened. Note, that the only one with a 'fear of overvaluation' was only the dotcom crash where the PE's were over 200 and many companies were just cash burning shells with massive negative free cash flows. I'm not saying a crash / correction won't happen, but i just wanted to put things into perspective and give a bigger picture of the overall stock market since pretty much before all of us were born. By no means am i an economist but I didn't include anything earlier than 1950s because that was pre WW2/WW1 - before the US was a superpower / the global financial hub / USD = world trade currency etc. Edit: some of you noted that its only 8.22% if you bought at the start but I want to clarify that yes and no! Yes for the people that literally buy in once once at the beginning of 1950. No because if you buy throughout the years (DCA every month let's say) you'll buy within the range - both lower and higher range! So it's more or less 8%! For example during 1960s-1980s the sp500 traded sideways! So if you constantly bought in those 20 years, the accumulation of money in this period would have a higher CAGR of > 8% because of where it is in the range. Just follow the lines! It makes it easier. There's roughly same amount of periods above and below the middle trend line. Edit: Changed enron scandal to lehman brothers as some pointed out my mistake. Edit: Further Log Graph explanation (why log is preferred) If the scale has a large range (i.e. 100 to 3000) then log should be used because its important to show the % changes as opposed to the point changes. A 1 point increase in the SP500 now is only 1/3811 = 0.02% whereas a 1 point increase 10 years ago was 1/1000= 0.1%. It's important to look at it in terms of % change because companies grow in terms of % as well. For example you don't quote apple has grown its business by 30 billion this year ( random number), instead you say apple grew its sales by 20% this year. Its so that its comparable. submitted by /u/Semcast to r/investing [link] [comments]

So I did some quantitative sentiment analysis to see if News websites/Reddit/Twitter panics before the stock market does, or if the stock market panics before Reddit/Twitter does. I have written an algo determining (stock specific) sentiment, I ran this on a dataset with (financial) news headlines (about 900k headlines), Twitter headlines en (stock related) Reddit headlines. From that I compared sentiment to the SP500 and I compared the intensity and volume of negative headlines to the VIX. This resulted in the two plots shown. Since the plot is somewhat full, I made it interactive so one can show for example only Reddit sentiment and zoom in and out of datapoints. This is in html, but Im not sure whether its allowed to share the link here so in case one is interested to play around with it shoot me a pm. https://imgur.com/yUI2c0N On request, interactive html is on: http://www.alternative-analytics.eu/dashboard/sentiment.html (just a plain clean html, no ads, links etc, base url also is not a general website), I update the graph daily. submitted by /u/atc2017 to r/investing [link] [comments]