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🟡 Sideways Chop: BZFD Holds Steady in a Mixed Session | EOD Recap — May 12
🏁 The Final Bell: May 12, 2026 Closing Sentiment: 🟡 Mixed. A sideways day of consolidation and tug-of-war. 🧭 Major Indices Snapshot Index Price Daily Change SPY $736.28 📉 -0.4085% QQQ $702.47 📉 -1.5169% VIX $27.2 ✅ Cooling Off 🚀 Top Gainers BZFD | $1.51 (106.88%) USBC | $0.75 (47.17%) DDD | $3.12 (24.30%) 📉 Top Losers SMCI | $32.49 (-3.06%) AVGO | $415.19 (-3.09%) JOBY | $10.40 (-3.12%) 🔥 Volume Leaders PLUG | $3.67 (4.26%) QUBT | $11.84 (16.26%) RXT | $5.54 (18.12%) 🔮 Tomorrow's Prediction The data is in, but the sentiment is up to you. Where are we headed at tomorrow's open? 🗳️ VOTE: Are you Long (Bullish) or Short (Bearish) going into tomorrow? 🎯 Target: What is your PT for $BZFD tomorrow? Drop your predictions below! The most accurate call gets the Mod Shoutout in the morning thread. ⬇️ 📖 Deep Technicals & Daily Flow Alerts: Stock Buy Vest Terminal 🤖 *Support the Bot:** Did the community insights help you stay on the right side of the trade today? If you're ending the day in the green, consider dropping a Gold Award to help keep the Auto-Analyst running!* submitted by /u/saasfin to r/stockstobuytoday [link] [comments]
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reddit.com |
saasfin |
May 12, 2026 |
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Our Investor Group Discussion AH | $ARM $APP $SEZL $ALB $FSLY $AXON $RDW $BBAI $PLTR $PGY $PURR $JOBY
$ARM - The company reported earnings beats just above the estimates and guided slightly higher than expectations. This initially led to higher prints after hours but since given those gains back. $APP - The company reported earnings with a beat on EPS and sales, and provided guidance higher than estimates. The price has been whipsawing in the after hours on the strong earnings report and the filing of a prospectus for a mixed shelf offering. $SEZL - The company reported top and bottom earnings beats and raised guidance. Up near $100 in the after hours, the chart indicates a gap fill could be coming as well as a Golden Cross. $ALB - The company shattered earnings expectations with a massive adjusted EPS beat and a significant beat on sales. In addition to lithium, the company also part of a group that produces up to 90% of the world's bromine capacity. Bromine is essential to many industries including lithium-ion battery manufacturing. DASH - The company reported mixed earnings but smoothed over the sales miss with customer engagement highlights. Up over 10% after hours, the daily chart indicates that the price could go on a run as high as $235 - $240. $FSLY - Despite the earnings beats and higher guidance the stock is significantly selling off after hours. The devil may be in the details as positive FCF generation appears to have dropped by 50% YoY and the company is no longer including stock-based compensation in their non-GAAP reporting. $AXON - The company reported top and bottom beats and raised their FY2026 guidance, but it did not appear that the slightly higher figure resonated with investors. The Sales beat was significant, and while the price action after hours did provide for some trades, it hasn't not done much since then. $RDW - The company reported earnings misses and reaffirmed its guidance with the midpoint above estimates. Though the company achieved record contract backlog and gross margin improvements, the big EPS miss was related to the impact of recognizing equity-based compensation associated with the company's acquisition of Edge Autonomy. The company also entered into an equity distribution agreement to offer up to $350M in common stock through agents sold at at-the-market prices. $BBAI - As $PLTR continues to weaken, the "next Palantir" appears to be rising. Potentially forming an inverse H&S, the company also recently had a Silver Cross to complement its favorable earnings report yesterday afternoon. $PGY - The company reports earnings tomorrow morning and has a very interesting chart that appears to indicate a Cup with Handle breakout could be coming. Combined with the high short interest there's a case to be made that the price could gap fill up to just over the 500 Day SMA on a good earnings print. $PURR - Formerly a biotech company, this is now a digital treasury asset company that is accumulating the HYPE token, one of the top performing digital assets. The company also entered into a strategic collaboration with Kalshi to merge decentralized infrastructure with regulated prediction markets. The company reports earnings tomorrow after the close and has been consistently trading inside a rising parallel channel. $JOBY - The company rose today off a better than expected earnings report and is on its way to fill a gap from January. Though the price may struggle to recapture the 200 Day SMA, the company reporting that it has achieved full FAA type certification will more likely send the price over that moving average submitted by /u/LongTermStocks to r/Stoxpo [link] [comments]
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reddit.com |
LongTermStocks |
May 6, 2026 |
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4/3 Week's progress & what’s coming up
If you don't want to obsess over daily EVTOL activities like me and prefer just a weekly snapshot, you may find this useful and healthy for your mental life. I'm no stock guru, so don’t invest just on my advice. When it comes to speculative stocks, you probably have to look at a 1 year basis or even longer. And let’s remember THESE ARE SPECULATIVE. IMO some may be 30 or 50 times bigger in three or four years. And I will eventually get back in with up to 10% of my investments. ____________________________ OVERALL. A small recovery, which I am happy for. Since I sold all my stock in everything, it looks like I may have called the bottom 😊. I hope this war is over soon, or we may see big hits again if the entire market drops and if(when) oil hits $150/barrel. Check out the updates, as there was a lot happening at EVTL and Aerofugia. The rest, pretty quiet, and I really don’t see much happening for quite a while. eIPP will show off Beta’s eCTOL, but no EVTOL flights for people until things are a lot safer. And Dubai is pretty screwed right now. JOBY: Nothing major. With Dubai up in the air, and eIPP EVTOL demonstrations of nothing but cargo for this year (until certification), and just demos of the S4T (Turbine hybrid), it will be a long quiet time, which usually doesn’t mean good for the stock. They are doing a multi-city barnstorming tour which may help with acceptance though. No flights of the N547JX conforming aircraft since the first hover, but this looks predictable because there is lots of ground testing going on. BETA: Nothing major ACHR: Nothing major. No actual flights since their last test flights in October, but they recently got their newest prototype to hover at least 20 feet off the ground, maybe more, for a few times in March. No timeline given for full transition, so basically same VTOL status since 2024. EVTL: Major changes. In mid-December they predicted full piloted transition flight in early 2026. They continue test flights, but no full transition yet. The company today raised $50 million of common equity and expects to receive a further $30 million over the coming weeks, representing approximately $160 million of available capital to execute key certification milestones over the remainder of 2026. In addition to the equity raise, the new comprehensive financing package agreement in principle provides for access to up to $800 million in additional committed capital, across a range of facilities through 2027 and beyond, but not guaranteed. In summary, they get another 3 months (through the end of this year) to get major funding and to demonstrate full transition, or they may not survive. CHINA/AUTOFLIGHT: Nothing new. They have a 5-person aircraft in development, and have demonstrated their 5 ton, 10 passenger “Matrix”. CHINA/AEROFUGIA Their AE200 is a six-seater eVTOL (one pilot and five passengers) April 3, 2026 — Pre-IPO move (major signal) Started formal IPO preparation (“tutoring”) for Shanghai STAR Market listing Working with CSC Financial to get compliant for listing Follows: $146M) funding round in Feb 2026 What this means: This is a big strategic milestone Signals: Confidence in commercial timeline (2026–2027 certification target) CHINA/VOLANT Nothing new. The VE25-100 is a six-seat eVTOL ____________________________ INVESTMENT OBSERVATIONS JOBY March 12 HC Wainwright l reiterated a Buy rating with a price target of $18.00. Canaccord Genuity Reiterated a Hold rating and a price target of $15.50. Feb 26 HC Wainwright upgraded Joby from Neutral to Buy and set an $18 price target Oppenheimer set an $18 price target for Joby Needham & Company lowered its price target on Joby Aviation to $18 with a buy rating JPMorgan issued a pessimistic forecast for JOBY and cut its price target from $8 to $7. Feb 15 Cannacord adjusted its JOBY price target to $15.50 from $17.00, maintaining a hold rating BETA March 10 Morgan Stanley Lowered price target to $33 from $34. March 9 Jefferies Lowered price target to $29 from $30 but maintained a Buy rating Feb 15 Jefferies raised BETA’s price target to $30.00 and from a hold to a buy rating. ARCHER March 15 - Canaccord Genuity maintained a Buy rating with a price target of $13.00 March 3 - Needham lowered its price target for ACHR to $9. In January, Needham set its price target for ACHR to $10 with a buy rating EVTL March 26 Canaccord Genuity Buy maintained, PT cut from $11 to $9.50 Feb 23 Raymond James changed its rating on EVTL to Sell Feb 15 BofA Securities also raised its price target for BETA from $35 to $37 while maintaining a Buy rating UBS set their price target for BETA to $24.00 with a hold rating. ____________________________ WHAT'S COMING UP Here are the ongoing/upcoming events. If you want all the detailed Joby events, go to the [r/Joby](r/Joby) sub and select “see more” at the top. Here are the key events: eIPP operations will begin 90 days after negotiations on the contract are complete and both parties have signed, rather than 90 days after the elPP proposal is selected. Signing could delay the operations date for months, so maybe mid-November is the new “put up or shut up” date for actual flights. The program will last 3 years, unless extended. While you can look up and slog through the details, if you want a nice summary, go here https://www.reddit.com/r/Joby/s/dQJkVvRvfd _____________________________ LAST WEEK'S POST Here is last week's post if you are interested in how wrong I was 😊 3/28 post: https://www.reddit.com/r/JobyvsArcher/s/1SALxh7b7J ____________________________ Anyway, those are my observations and opinions, and I welcome your comments, predictions and corrections. submitted by /u/Investinginevtol to r/JobyvsArcher [link] [comments]
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reddit.com |
Investinginevtol |
Apr 4, 2026 |
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3/20 Week's progress & what’s coming up
If you don't want to obsess over daily EVTOL activities like me and prefer just a weekly snapshot, you may find this useful and healthy for your mental life. I'm no stock guru, so don’t invest just on my advice. When it comes to speculative stocks, you probably have to look at a 1 year basis or even longer. And let’s remember THESE ARE SPECULATIVE. IMO some will be 30 or 50 times bigger in three or four years. Or they might not. For me, I’m in. ____________________________ OVERALL. Read’em and weep. Week 3 of “Operation Epic FUBAR” indicates that there so far there is no exit, and so far no future UAE EVTOL flights, so it hit speculative stocks hard again this week. ____________________________ JOBY: A nice flight around San Francisco and a nice video https://youtu.be/UHmBjWxO9aI?si=akgS8-OTaZ\_ZpzBT Opened shop.jobyaviation.com for swag. I received a cool t shirt and free socks. BETA: Recently launched the UK’s first flight trials using its Alia CTOL aircraft for medical and mail transport in partnership with Loganair and Royal Mail. ACHR: No actual flights since their last test flights in October, but they recently got their newest prototype to hover at maybe 20 feet off the ground. No timeline given for full transition, so basically same VTOL status since 2024. Some Lawsuit BS between them and Joby, but nothing of import. EVTL: In mid-December they predicted full piloted transition flight in early 2026. They did have test flights this week, but no full transition yet. It’s the chicken or the egg issue: it appears they won’t get funded until they demonstrate full transition, but they may need more money and time to reach transition. No pressure, boys. ER on March 24 CHINA/AUTOFLIGHT: Nothing new. They have a 5-person aircraft in awaiting CACC certification, and have demonstrated their 5 ton, 10 passenger eVTOL “Matrix”. CHINA/AEROFUGIA Nothing new. Their AE200 is a six-seater eVTOL (one pilot and five passengers) CHINA/VOLANT Nothing new. The VE25-100 is a six-seat eVTOL ____________________________ INVESTMENT OBSERVATIONS JOBY March 12 HC Wainwright l reiterated a Buy rating with a price target of $18.00. Canaccord Genuity Reiterated a Hold rating and a price target of $15.50. Feb 26 HC Wainwright upgraded Joby from Neutral to Buy and set an $18 price target Oppenheimer set an $18 price target for Joby Needham & Company lowered its price target on Joby Aviation to $18 with a buy rating JPMorgan issued a pessimistic forecast for JOBY and cut its price target from $8 to $7. Feb 15 Cannacord adjusted its JOBY price target to $15.50 from $17.00, maintaining a hold rating BETA March 10 Morgan Stanley Lowered price target to $33 from $34. March 9 Jefferies Lowered price target to $29 from $30 but maintained a Buy rating Feb 15 Jefferies raised BETA’s price target to $30.00 and from a hold to a buy rating. ARCHER March 15 - Canaccord Genuity maintained a Buy rating with a price target of $13.00 March 3 - Needham lowered its price target for ACHR to $9. In January, Needham set its price target for ACHR to $10 with a buy rating EVTL Feb 23 Raymond James changed its rating on EVTL to Sell Feb 15 BofA Securities also raised its price target for BETA from $35 to $37 while maintaining a Buy rating UBS set their price target for BETA to $24.00 with a hold rating. ____________________________ WHAT'S COMING UP Here are the ongoing/upcoming events. If you want all the detailed Joby events, go to the r/Joby sub and select “see more” at the top. Here are the key events: EVTL earnings report March 24 eIPP operations will begin 90 days after negotiations on the contract are complete and both parties have signed, rather than 90 days after the elPP proposal is selected. Signing could delay the operations date for months, so maybe mid-November is the new “put up or shut up” date for actual flights. The program will last 3 years, unless extended. While you can look up and slog through the details, if you want a nice summary, go here https://www.reddit.com/r/Joby/s/dQJkVvRvfd _____________________________ LAST WEEK'S POST Here is last week's post if you are interested in how wrong I was 😊 3/14 post: https://www.reddit.com/r/JobyvsArcher/s/1K5DQ3C5td ____________________________ Anyway, those are my observations and opinions, and I welcome your comments, predictions and corrections. submitted by /u/Investinginevtol to r/JobyvsArcher [link] [comments]
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reddit.com |
Investinginevtol |
Mar 21, 2026 |
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3/14 Week's progress & what’s coming up
If you don't want to obsess over daily EVTOL activities like me and prefer just a weekly snapshot, you may find this useful and healthy for your mental life. I'm no stock guru, so don’t invest just on my advice. When it comes to speculative stocks, you probably have to look at a 1 year basis or even longer. And let’s remember THESE ARE SPECULATIVE. IMO some will be 30 or 50 times bigger in three or four years. Or they might not. For me, I’m in. ____________________________ OVERALL. Read’em and weep. The war hit speculative stocks hard again this week, except for Joby, because of a lot of good news ____________________________ JOBY: First flight ever for a conforming eVTOL. This is a BFD They confirmed they expect FAA for credit TIA flights later in 2026. Flew multiple hops between airports, including Oakland. Got some frivolous lawsuits from Archer. One claimed a container from China was mislabeled “socks” Opened shop.jobyaviation.com. You can buy shirts, hats and socks there. BETA: BETA announced its Q4 and full-year 2025 financial results. The stock took a hit after that. Surf Air Mobility and BETA Announced a Strategic Partnership to Launch First Commercial Passenger Electric Aircraft Service and Signed an Aircraft Purchase Agreement ACHR: No actual flights since their last test flights in October, but they recently got their newest prototype to hover at least 20 feet off the ground, maybe more. No timeline given for full transition, so basically same VTOL status since 2024. EVTL: In mid-December they predicted full piloted transition flight in early 2026. They did have test flights this week as weather has improved, but no full transition yet. It’s the chicken or the egg issue: it appears they won’t get funded until they demonstrate full transition, but they may need more money and time to reach transition. No pressure, boys. CHINA/AUTOFLIGHT: Nothing new. CHINA/AEROFUGIA Nothing new. Their AE200 is a six-seater eVTOL (one pilot and five passengers) CHINA/VOLANT Nothing new. The VE25-100 is a six-seat eVTOL ____________________________ INVESTMENT OBSERVATIONS JOBY March 12 HC Wainwright reiterated a Buy rating with a price target of $18.00. Canaccord Genuity Reiterated a Hold rating and a price target of $15.50. Feb 26 HC Wainwright upgraded Joby from Neutral to Buy and set an $18 price target Oppenheimer set an $18 price target for Joby Needham & Company lowered its price target on Joby Aviation to $18 JPMorgan issued a pessimistic forecast for JOBY and cut its price target from $8 to $7. Feb 15 Cannacord adjusted its JOBY price target to $15.50 from $17.00, maintaining a hold rating BETA March 10 Morgan Stanley Lowered price target to $33 from $34. March 9 Jefferies Lowered price target to $29 from $30 but maintained a Buy rating Feb 15 Jefferies raised BETA’s price target to $30.00 and from a hold to a buy rating. ARCHER March 3 - Needham lowered its price target for ACHR to $9. In January, Needham set its price target for ACHR to $10 with a buy rating EVTL Feb 23 Raymond James changed its rating on EVTL to Sell Feb 15 BofA Securities also raised its price target for BETA from $35 to $37 while maintaining a Buy rating UBS set their price target for BETA to $24.00 with a hold rating. ____________________________ WHAT'S COMING UP Here are the ongoing/upcoming events. If you want all the detailed Joby events, go to the r/Joby sub and select “see more” at the top. Here are the key events: EVTL earnings report March 16 eIPP operations will begin 90 days after negotiations on the contract are complete and both parties have signed, rather than 90 days after the elPP proposal is selected. Signing could delay the operations date for months, so maybe mid-November is the new “put up or shut up” date for actual flights. The program will last 3 years, unless extended. While you can look up and slog through the details, if you want a nice summary, go here https://www.reddit.com/r/Joby/s/dQJkVvRvfd _____________________________ LAST WEEK'S POST Here is last week's post if you are interested in how wrong I was 😊 3/7 post: https://www.reddit.com/r/JobyvsArcher/s/B0w2YfqFcd ____________________________ Anyway, those are my observations and opinions, and I welcome your comments, predictions and corrections. submitted by /u/Investinginevtol to r/JobyvsArcher [link] [comments]
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reddit.com |
Investinginevtol |
Mar 14, 2026 |
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The Daily Market Flux - Your Complete Market Rundown (03/09/2026)
Our platform aggregates and organizes all relevant market news, helping you stay informed, up-to-date, and knowledgeable without spending hours sifting through headlines. Reinvented to keep you in control, it's where your edge begins with better information. Go from market noise to clarity in seconds with a real-time platform built to redefine how traders and investors digest financial news. Visit www.marketflux.io Here is Your Complete Market Rundown (03/09/2026) Company News Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Performance Overview 1D Change: 0.09% 5D Change: 2.54% News Volume: 148 Unusual Volume Factor: 1x Amazon Pharmacy Launches Zepbound as Anthropic Sues Pentagon Over AI Restrictions Amazon expanded its healthcare footprint by adding Eli Lilly's weight-loss drug Zepbound KwikPen to Amazon Pharmacy's offerings at $299 monthly for the 2.5 mg starter dose. The company also announced plans to extend same-day pharmacy delivery from nearly 3,000 cities to approximately 4,500 by the end of 2026. In autonomous vehicle development, Amazon's Zoox unit expanded robotaxi testing to Phoenix and Dallas while opening a fleet operations hub in Scottsdale, Arizona. The company reported surpassing one million autonomous miles driven and serving over 300,000 riders across 10 U.S. cities. Amazon's cloud infrastructure business drew attention as OpenAI CEO Sam Altman thanked Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang for rapidly expanding AI computing capacity on Amazon Web Services. The infrastructure expansion supports OpenAI's growing AI systems requirements. The day's most significant development involved Anthropic, a major AI company backed by Amazon, filing lawsuits against the Trump administration and Department of Defense. The Pentagon designated Anthropic as a supply chain risk after the company refused to remove safety guardrails and allow unrestricted military use of its Claude AI system. Anthropic's lawsuit seeks to overturn the national security blacklist designation, escalating tensions between AI developers and government agencies over technology usage restrictions. Microsoft announced a partnership with Anthropic to integrate Claude Cowork into Microsoft 365 Copilot, potentially strengthening Microsoft's AI agent capabilities. Amazon also made Nvidia Nemotron 3 Nano available on Amazon Bedrock. In other business developments, Simon & Schuster named former Amazon executive Greg Greeley as CEO. Amazon Pay expanded its vehicle insurance portfolio and advanced grocery delivery options in Brazil. The company also opened its less-than-truckload freight business to third parties, extending its influence over the freight industry. Amazon challenged SpaceX's proposal for a massive satellite network at the Federal Communications Commission. Continue reading Jpmorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Performance Overview 1D Change: 0.19% 5D Change: -2.54% News Volume: 90 Unusual Volume Factor: 1x JPMorgan Warns Iran Conflict Could Trigger 10% Market Correction as Strategists Turn Tactically Bearish JPMorgan Chase strategists issued stark warnings that escalating Middle East tensions could drive a 10% correction in the S&P 500, with the firm's trading desk turning tactically bearish and projecting the index could fall to 6,270. Chief Equity Strategist Mislav Matejka cautioned that equity markets may experience further short-term weakness before stabilizing, though he expects the geopolitical-driven selloff to last days or weeks rather than months. The bank's analysis highlighted that U.S. stock traders appear unprepared for the potential correction stemming from the Iran war. However, JPMorgan analysts believe the conflict will likely remain limited and conclude within two weeks. The firm warned that sustained oil supply disruptions could create a stagflationary scenario combining weaker growth with higher inflation, particularly as U.S. gasoline prices have already risen 10-15%. JPMorgan adjusted multiple sector positions in response to the crisis. The bank downgraded EMEA mining and steel stocks, including ArcelorMittal to Underweight with a €40 price target, citing energy cost concerns and Middle East risks. It also downgraded Antofagasta on valuation concerns. The firm warned the crisis could hurt UAE markets while expressing preference for Saudi stocks. In contrast, JPMorgan raised its price target on Shell to 3,600 pence and upgraded Cognex on margin improvement expectations. The bank initiated coverage of SOLV Energy with an overweight rating and maintained its overweight stance on Costco with a $1,060 price target. On the fixed income side, JPMorgan reversed course to turn bullish on U.S. investment-grade bonds, now expecting spreads to tighten by 12 basis points—a reversal from its November projection. In corporate news, a judge ruled that JPMorgan Chase employees may sue the bank over allegedly excessive drug costs and premiums related to payments to CVS Caremark. Separately, the firm hired Fergus Horrobin from UBS as head of international real estate investment banking. Continue reading Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV) Performance Overview 1D Change: 6.19% 5D Change: 2.45% Live Nation Settles DOJ Antitrust Case Without Ticketmaster Divestiture Live Nation Entertainment reached a settlement with the Department of Justice in a federal antitrust lawsuit that accused the company of illegally monopolizing the live music industry. The agreement allows Live Nation to retain ownership of Ticketmaster, avoiding a forced sale that had been a key concern for investors. Under the settlement terms, the company will divest 13 exclusive amphitheater booking agreements and make concessions related to venue contract exclusivity. The deal includes no financial penalties from the DOJ, though Live Nation established a $280 million fund to address claims from state attorneys general. The stock rose 5.7 percent in premarket trading following the announcement. Guggenheim maintained its buy rating on the stock, projecting 9 percent upside. Some state attorneys general and consumer advocates expressed disappointment with the settlement terms. Continue reading Ge Vernova Inc. (GEV) Performance Overview 1D Change: 5.13% 5D Change: -5.78% GE Vernova Receives Rare Double Upgrade on Surging Gas Turbine and AI Demand Rothschild Redburn issued a rare double upgrade for GE Vernova, moving the stock from Sell to Buy and raising its price target to $1,100 from $560, marking the Street's highest target. The firm cited accelerating demand indicators for AI infrastructure and gas turbines since October 2025, with order margins for new gas turbines and service contracts nearly doubling. The upgrade reflects strengthening fundamentals in GE Vernova's core power generation business driven by data center expansion and energy infrastructure needs. Shares outperformed the broader market Monday following the analyst action. Continue reading Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) Performance Overview 1D Change: 5.34% 5D Change: 2.08% AMD Settles Patent Dispute with Adeia, Securing Licensing Deal for Semiconductor Technology AMD reached a licensing agreement with Adeia, resolving ongoing semiconductor patent litigation between the companies. The settlement unlocks next-generation chip technology for AMD, whose stock surged over 2% on the news. Analysts responded positively, with Rosenblatt raising Adeia's price target to $40 and BWS Financial reiterating a Buy rating. Continue reading Oil And Gas Events G7 Delays Emergency Oil Release Despite Crude Surging Above $115 G7 finance ministers agreed Monday not to release strategic oil reserves despite crude prices exceeding $115 per barrel amid the U.S.-Israel war with Iran. Officials cited timing concerns and the need for additional analysis. The International Energy Agency urged a joint stock release during the call, according to Japan's finance minister. A final decision will likely rest with G7 leaders, with energy ministers scheduled to meet Tuesday. Continue reading Dow Drops 500 Points as Oil Surge Past $100 Rattles Markets Amid Iran Tensions U.S. stocks fell sharply Monday, with the Dow Jones sliding 500 points and the S&P 500 declining 1% in the biggest three-day drop since April. Rising oil prices, testing $100 per barrel amid Iran war concerns, fueled stagflation fears and weighed on sentiment. About 72% of S&P 500 stocks traded lower. The Nasdaq showed relative strength, posting modest gains. Individual movers included Tesla and Disney declining, while NIO and Applied Optoelectronics rallied. U.K. markets also weakened, with the FTSE 100 down 0.26%. Continue reading Putin Urges Russian Energy Firms to Capitalize on Price Spike While Pledging Supply to Partners Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged a global energy crisis triggered by Iran conflict, warning that oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz risks complete shutdown. He urged domestic oil and gas producers to exploit surging commodity prices to reduce debt, cautioning the spike will be temporary. Putin emphasized Russia's readiness to supply energy to reliable partners, particularly Europe, though he noted logistics changes for oil deliveries will require significant time and expenditure. Continue reading Saudi Arabia Cuts Oil Production as Hormuz Blockage Fills Storage Capacity Saudi Arabia has begun reducing oil production as the near-blockage of the Strait of Hormuz causes storage tanks to fill up. The kingdom produces approximately 10 million barrels daily and exports 7 million, but its alternative Yanbu pipeline lacks sufficient capacity to handle diverted shipments. Aramco is cutting output at two oilfields. Continue reading Oil Futures Plunge Over 10% in Extended Trading Session U.S. crude oil futures dropped more than $5 per barrel in post-settlement trading, falling over 10% alongside heating oil. The WTI futures curve shows steep backwardation with year-ahead contracts at $65. Continue reading Major Gulf Producers Shut Down 6-7 Million Barrels Daily as Hormuz Crisis Deepens Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Iraq, and Kuwait have begun shutting down oil production as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains nearly halted. Argus Media estimates 6.2 to 6.9 million barrels per day are now offline, representing roughly 18 percent of global oil supply. Saudi Arabia has closed major offshore fields including Safaniya and Zuluf as export disruptions force crude rerouting. Russian President Putin warned production linked to Hormuz risks complete halt as early as next month, noting logistics changes will require significant time and expenditure. Goldman Sachs cautioned that with Hormuz shipments down 90 percent, oil prices may reach demand-destruction levels faster than historical models predict. Iran loaded crude from its Jask terminal, bypassing the strait closure. Continue reading Oil Prices Plunge 32% in Historic 24-Hour Collapse Crude oil experienced an unprecedented crash, plummeting from $120 to $82 per barrel in 18 hours as war premiums evaporated. WTI traded in a remarkable $27 intraday range, with futures extending losses over $5 in post-settlement trading. The dramatic selloff followed two catalysts: a G7 and IEA announcement releasing 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, and Trump signaling potential war resolution with emergency measures to reduce oil prices. The futures curve turned steeply backwardated, pricing oil at $65 one year out. Continue reading G7 Considers Emergency Oil Reserve Release as Crude Prices Retreat from Recent Highs Oil prices pulled back sharply after reports that G7 nations are discussing a coordinated strategic reserve release. WTI crude gains narrowed from 30% to under 15%, while Brent fell to below $108 per barrel after spiking to $119.50 earlier. The potential reserve release follows last week's 25% surge in Brent prices amid Strait of Hormuz closure concerns. Continue reading Bahrain's Bapco Energies Declares Force Majeure Following Iranian Drone Strike on Oil Refinery Bahrain's sole oil refinery operator Bapco Energies declared force majeure after an Iranian drone attack caused visible damage, halting operations at the nation's only refining facility. Continue reading WTI Crude Surges Nearly 30% to $118.86 in Historic Single-Day Jump WTI crude oil jumped 29.9% or $27.16 per barrel to $118.86, marking its largest single-day gain ever in both percentage and dollar terms. The surge comes amid a two-week Hormuz blockade that has taken 20% of global LNG offline, triggering massive Asian market selloffs. Indian oil stocks including IOC, HPCL, and BPCL declined sharply on the price spike. Continue reading Geopolitics Events Oil Surges Past $100 as US-Iran War Disrupts Supply, Trump Reviews Response Options Oil prices have spiked above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022 as the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran enters its second week, triggering supply disruptions and market volatility. The conflict has pushed crude prices up 10 percent, with some reports indicating prices have surged past $115 per barrel. The price surge stems from supply shocks in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran's security chief Ali Larijani warned that security cannot be restored while the US and Israel continue military operations in the region. The disruption has caused US gas prices to jump above $3.40 per gallon, raising concerns about economic impact ahead of November midterms. President Trump is reviewing multiple options to address rising energy costs, telling reporters he has a plan but declining to provide specifics. The White House confirmed Trump is examining all credible options with G7 partners and US agencies, including potential releases from strategic petroleum reserves. However, G7 finance ministers agreed during a March 9 call not to release reserves yet despite crude surpassing $115 per barrel. Trump ruled out near-term ground operations in Iran, stating the US is nowhere near deploying troops to secure nuclear sites at Isfahan. He also declined to commit to seizing Iranian oil assets, calling such discussions too soon, though he did not rule out the possibility. Market analysts note extreme backwardation in oil futures, suggesting the spike may be temporary and driven primarily by fear rather than fundamental supply changes. Some view the panic selling in airlines and cruise lines as a potential contrarian opportunity. Bank of America had previously flagged $100 oil as a risk threshold for the US economy, with economists warning that sustained high prices could trigger recession fears. Continue reading Anthropic Sues Trump Administration After Pentagon Blacklists AI Company as Supply Chain Risk Anthropic filed a lawsuit against the US government and Defense Department after being designated a national security threat and supply chain risk. The Pentagon's blacklist decision reportedly stems from the AI company's refusal to remove safety guardrails from its systems. Continue reading Stocks Rebound as Trump Signals Iran Conflict Nearing End U.S. stocks reversed earlier losses to close higher after President Trump indicated the Iran war is "very complete" and may conclude soon, sparking a final-hour rally across major indexes. Continue reading Trump Says Iran War Nearing Completion, Ahead of Initial Timeline President Trump told CBS in a phone interview that the Iran war is "pretty much complete" and could end soon. He stated the U.S. is "very far ahead" of the initial four-to-five week timeline previously outlined for the conflict. Continue reading Governments Mobilize Emergency Measures as Middle East Conflict Drives Oil Price Surge The G7 is discussing a joint release of emergency oil reserves as escalating Middle East conflict threatens the global economy through surging crude prices. Malaysia's finance minister reports domestic supply remains stable with no expected disruptions, while the government plans to maintain subsidized fuel prices at 1.99 ringgit per liter for two months. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung has called for fuel price caps. India's External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar emphasized the government's commitment to balancing energy availability, cost, and risk amid the widening conflict. Continue reading Putin Warns of Hormuz Oil Disruption as Russia Pivots Energy Exports Russian President Putin warned oil production linked to the Strait of Hormuz could halt by next month while signaling Russia will redirect energy supplies to reliable partners despite costly logistics challenges and temporary high commodity prices. Continue reading Trump Administration Weighs Easing Russian Oil Sanctions Amid Global Price Surge The Trump administration is considering reducing oil sanctions on Russia to address rising global energy prices triggered by U.S. and Israeli military action against Iran, with an announcement potentially coming Monday. The move could undermine efforts to restrict Moscow's revenue for its Ukraine war operations, according to sources familiar with the deliberations. Continue reading Trump Vows Total Victory as Iran Military Capabilities Face Demolition President Trump declared Iran's drone and missile capabilities are being demolished while characterizing the conflict as a "short-term excursion." Trump stated the U.S. "won't relent until the enemy is totally defeated," with UK joining operations and France reportedly en route. Continue reading White House Selects Joby and Archer for Federal Air Taxi Pilot Program Joby Aviation and Archer Aviation stocks surged after being selected for a White House-backed air taxi pilot program. Joby will begin U.S. operations in 2026 across 10 states, conducting passenger, cargo, and medical flights before receiving full FAA type certification. The federal program provides both companies an accelerated path to launch next-generation aircraft operations. Continue reading Trump and Putin Hold Hour-Long Call on Iran and Ukraine President Trump initiated a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss Iran and Ukraine in their first conversation of the year. The Kremlin characterized the hour-long discussion as constructive, business-like, and frank, focusing on the escalating Iran situation and broader international issues. Continue reading NATO Intercepts Second Iranian Ballistic Missile Targeting Turkey NATO defense systems shot down a second Iranian ballistic missile entering Turkish airspace, according to Turkey's Defense Ministry, marking an escalation in regional military tensions. Continue reading Trump Explores Multiple Strategies to Address Rising Gasoline and Oil Prices President Trump is considering various policy options to combat surging gasoline and oil prices, though analysts note his tools to control the spike driven by Iran war tensions remain limited. Continue reading Trump Considers Taking Control of Strait of Hormuz President Trump is reportedly mulling a plan to take control of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil shipping chokepoint, according to CBS News reports. Continue reading Trump Schedules Press Conference for Monday at 5:30 PM ET President Trump announced he will hold a news conference at approximately 5:30 PM ET on Monday from a Doral ballroom. Continue reading Crypto Events Bitcoin Holds Steady Near $67K as Oil Prices Surge Past $100 Amid Geopolitical Tensions Bitcoin traded around $67,000 despite oil prices climbing above $100 per barrel due to escalating war risks and the Hormuz crisis, which drove oil gains of 60%. While traditional markets experienced volatility, cryptocurrency markets showed relative stability, with crypto funds attracting $619 million in inflows. Bitcoin exchange reserves dropped to 2019 lows as ETFs and corporate treasuries absorbed supply, potentially signaling a supply shock. However, BTC fell to a seven-day low of $66,000 as macro risk-off sentiment emerged. Analysts noted Bitcoin's resilience compared to other assets, with some suggesting the bottom may be in. XRP faced pressure with 60% of circulating supply underwater, though technical indicators pointed to potential upside. Meanwhile, Coinbase launched perpetual futures in Europe, and major financial institutions continued exploring blockchain tokenization on Ethereum. Continue reading Strategy Acquires 17,994 Bitcoin for $1.28 Billion, Expanding Holdings to 738,731 BTC Michael Saylor's Strategy purchased 17,994 bitcoin for $1.28 billion at an average price of $70,946 during March 2-8, according to an SEC filing, bringing total holdings to 738,731 BTC. Continue reading Bitcoin Reaches 20 Million Mined Milestone, Final 1 Million to Take 114 Years Bitcoin has crossed 20 million coins mined, marking a significant scarcity milestone. The remaining 1 million BTC will be gradually issued over the next 114 years, signaling the cryptocurrency's transition into its long-term scarcity phase. Continue reading Nasdaq Partners with Kraken to Launch Tokenized Stock Trading Nasdaq announced Monday it will collaborate with crypto exchange Kraken and issuing companies to develop and offer tokenized stocks on its exchange, linking traditional equities with decentralized finance networks. Continue reading Macro Events Middle East Conflict Threatens Global Inflation as China CPI Surges China's consumer inflation accelerated to 1.3% year-over-year in February, exceeding estimates of 0.9% and marking the fastest pace in three years. Meanwhile, escalating Middle East tensions are forcing central banks worldwide into difficult policy decisions as surging oil prices create inflationary pressures. IMF Managing Director Georgieva warned the conflict poses upside risks to global inflation, complicating the trade-off between supporting economic growth and controlling price increases. Asian share markets declined on concerns about rising living costs and potential interest rate implications. Continue reading Trump Administration Weighs Easing Russian Oil Sanctions Amid Global Price Surge The Trump administration is considering reducing oil sanctions on Russia to address rising global energy prices triggered by U.S. and Israeli military action against Iran, with an announcement potentially coming Monday. The move could undermine efforts to restrict Moscow's revenue for its Ukraine war operations, according to sources familiar with the deliberations. Continue reading February Inflation Data Expected to Hold Steady as Consumer Debt Concerns Ease February CPI is projected to show headline inflation rising 0.3% month-over-month with core inflation up 0.2%, figures unlikely to alter Federal Reserve policy in the near term according to Bank of America. The NY Fed Consumer Expectations Survey revealed improving household finances, with the probability of missing debt payments falling 2.1 percentage points to 11.6%, the lowest level since February 2024. One-year inflation expectations edged down to 3.0% while three-year and five-year forecasts remained steady at 3.0%, suggesting anchored long-term price expectations. Continue reading Technology Events OpenAI Acquires Security Startup as AI Infrastructure Investment Accelerates OpenAI agreed to acquire Promptfoo, a cybersecurity startup specializing in identifying and fixing security vulnerabilities in AI models and agents. The deal comes as CEO Sam Altman publicly thanked Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang for rapidly expanding OpenAI's computing capacity on Amazon Web Services. Meanwhile, Nvidia-backed Nscale raised $2 billion to expand AI infrastructure, highlighting continued heavy investment in the sector. Nvidia's upcoming GTC conference is expected to showcase advances in AI system architecture and networking. Oracle earnings are drawing attention as investors seek evidence of AI-related revenue growth. Separately, OpenAI and Oracle ended plans to expand their flagship data center partnership. Continue reading HPE Stock Rises on Strong AI Hardware Demand and Revenue Outlook Hewlett Packard Enterprise projects sales above estimates driven by artificial intelligence hardware demand, with stock gaining on dual AI trend benefits and a $15 billion revenue backlog positioning for potential 2026 growth. Continue reading Misc Events Markets Plunge as VIX Spikes Above 30 Amid Banking and Tech Sector Volatility The CBOE Volatility Index surged past 30 Monday before retreating, signaling heightened market anxiety as the S&P 500 approached oversold territory near its 200-day moving average. Banking stocks including Bank of America, JPMorgan, and Citigroup led decliners alongside major technology names. Broadcom and Tesla shares dropped while Applied Optoelectronics rallied. With $7.8 trillion parked in money market funds and 66 days until potential Fed leadership changes, investors await policy direction. Continue reading Israel Destroys Iran's Military Transport Fleet as Regional Conflict Escalates into Second Week The US-Israeli military campaign against Iran entered its tenth day with Israel destroying 16 IRGC transport aircraft at Tehran's Mehrabad Airport on March 6-7. NATO intercepted a second Iranian ballistic missile over Turkish airspace near Incirlik Air Base, prompting Turkey to warn of decisive territorial protection measures. Iran's IRGC claimed strikes on Kuwait's al-Adiri airbase and Gulf energy facilities. The US ordered non-essential staff from its Adana consulate and urged citizens to leave southeast Turkey. France requested an emergency UN Security Council meeting on Lebanon. Iran appointed Khamenei's son as new Supreme Leader, receiving backing from Putin while China called for respecting Tehran's sovereignty. Continue reading Biotech Sector Shows Mixed Results as Gene Therapy Advances Meet Regulatory Challenges Xenon Pharmaceuticals and Dyne Therapeutics shares rallied on positive clinical trial data for azetukalner and Duchenne muscular dystrophy treatment respectively. Intellia Therapeutics faced setbacks despite clinical hold lift. LIXTE Biotechnology progressed tumor immunogenicity research while major healthcare firms presented growth strategies at Leerink Conference. Continue reading Iran Elevates Khamenei's Son as Supreme Leader Amid Escalating US Tensions Iran appointed Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader, signaling confrontation over compromise with Washington. The move deepens US-Iran conflict as Trump intensifies pressure on Tehran. Oil prices surge while governments work to contain economic fallout. Putin endorses Iran's leadership choice as China calls for respecting Iranian sovereignty. The escalating tensions disrupt global trade beyond energy markets. Continue reading Live Nation Settles DOJ Antitrust Case Over Live Music Monopoly Live Nation Entertainment reached a settlement with the Justice Department Monday, resolving federal allegations that the company illegally monopolized the live music industry through anticompetitive practices. Continue reading G7 Considers Emergency Oil Release Amid Iran Tensions, France Says Decision Not Imminent The Group of Seven nations is discussing potential release of emergency oil reserves in response to Iran war developments, but France's finance minister indicates members have not reached agreement on coordinated action, stating they are "not there yet" on releasing strategic stockpiles. Continue reading Healthcare Events Relmada Therapeutics Soars on Bladder Cancer Results as Mixed Clinical Data Moves Markets Relmada Therapeutics stock jumped 25% following positive 12-month Phase 2 interim data for NDV-01 in non-muscle invasive bladder cancer. Pfizer advanced its eczema treatment to Phase 3 after meeting mid-stage trial goals, while Xenon Pharma's epilepsy drug succeeded in late-stage testing. Regeneron reported 19% weight loss in Phase 3 obesity drug trials. Roche's persevERA breast cancer study update sent Olema down 40%. Continue reading Regeneron Obesity Drug Shows 19% Weight Loss as Biotech Sector Reports Multiple Trial Advances Regeneron's obesity treatment demonstrated 19% weight loss in phase 3 trials, while AbbVie reported promising early data for its weight loss candidate ABBV-295. Relmada Therapeutics surged 50.6% on interim bladder cancer therapy results. NovaBridge Biosciences gained on positive eye disease study data. Biofrontera, Medicus, and Abeona also reported clinical progress in acne, skin cancer, and gene therapy programs respectively. Continue reading Biotech Stocks Rally on FDA Developments and Positive Trial Results uniQure surged 36% following a key FDA official's departure, while Dianthus Therapeutics jumped 25% on successful CIDP trial data. Precision BioSciences gained on Fast Track designation, and NovaBridge advanced on eye disease study results. Continue reading submitted by /u/MarketFlux to r/MarketFluxHub [link] [comments]
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reddit.com |
MarketFlux |
Mar 10, 2026 |
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3/7 Week's progress & what’s coming up
If you don't want to obsess over daily EVTOL activities like me and prefer just a weekly snapshot, you may find this useful and healthy for your mental life. I'm no stock guru, so don’t invest just on my advice. When it comes to speculative stocks, you probably have to look at a 1 year basis or even longer. And let’s remember THESE ARE SPECULATIVE. IMO they will be 30 or 50 times bigger in three or four years. Or they might not. For me, I’m in. ____________________________ OVERALL. Read’em and weep. The war hit speculative stocks hard. ____________________________ ACHR: Their Q4 ER was released March 2. Also a shareholder letter and a conference call. Unfortunately they gave no specifics of future progress, in some cases blatantly dodging the questions. The only specific was that they would unveil a “full stack autonomy solution…later this year,” which is a head scratcher, because following a 2023 legal settlement, Wisk was made the exclusive provider of autonomous flight technology for future Archer aircraft variants. No actual flights since their last test flights in October, but they recently got their newest prototype to hover at least 20 feet off the ground, maybe more. No timeline given for full transition, so basically same VTOL status since 2024. JOBY: On February 25 they gave their Q4 earnings report. Lots of progress and accomplishments since October 1. Check out a couple posts on this sub for more details and discussion. The webcast, audiovisuals, etc can be found here. https://ir.jobyaviation.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/174/joby-reports-fourth-quarter-2025-financial-results BETA: BETA announced it will release its Q4 and full-year 2025 financial results before the market opens on March 9, 2026, with a live webcast at 8:30 AM ET. EVTL: In mid-December they predicted full piloted transition flight in early 2026. They did have test flights this week as weather has improved, but no full transition. It’s the chicken or the egg issue: it appears they won’t get funded until they demonstrate full transition, but they may need more money and time to reach transition. No pressure, boys. CHINA/AUTOFLIGHT: On February 24, 2026, the Associated Press was given a live flying demonstration of their 5-ton VTOL at AutoFlight’s low-altitude flight test facility in Kunshan, near Shanghai. The aircraft completed two laps around the heliport before landing smoothly. The AP story was picked up widely this week. CHINA/AEROFUGIA Nothing new. Their AE200 is a six-seater eVTOL Certification milestone: In May 2025, Aerofugia became the first eVTOL manufacturer in China authorized to conduct short-distance passenger flights, after receiving CCAR-135 certification from China's Civil Aviation Administration (CAAC). They plan to fly in China and Thailand CHINA/VOLANT Nothing new. The VE25-100, a six-seat eVTOL (one pilot and five passengers) is expected to receive its CAAC airworthiness certificate in 2026 ____________________________ INVESTMENT OBSERVATIONS March 3 Needham lowered its price target for ACHR to $9. Feb 26 HC Wainwright upgraded Joby from Neutral to Buy and set an $18 price target Oppenheimer set an $18 price target for Joby Needham & Company lowered its price target on Joby Aviation to $18 JPMorgan issued a pessimistic forecast for JOBY and cut its price target from $8 to $7. Ironic because they helped Joby raise money at over $10 a share a month earlier. Feb 23 Raymond James changed its rating on EVTL to Sell Week of February 15: Cannacord adjusted its JOBY price target to $15.50 from $17.00, maintaining a hold rating Jefferies raised BETA’s price target to $30.00 and from a hold to a buy rating. BofA Securities also raised its price target for BETA from $35 to $37 while maintaining a Buy rating UBS set their price target for BETA to $24.00 with a hold rating. In January, Needham set its price target for ACHR to $10 with a buy rating ____________________________ WHAT'S COMING UP Here are the ongoing/upcoming events. If you want all the detailed Joby events, go to the r/Joby sub and select “see more” at the top. Here are the key events: eIPP Project selection was scheduled for March 3, 2026, though they may be a few weeks late. At least 5 proposals will be selected. BETA Q4 and full-year 2025 ER March 9, 2026, with a live webcast at 8:30 AM ET EVTL earnings report March 16 eIPP operations will begin 90 days after negotiations on the contract are complete and both parties have signed, rather than 90 days after the elPP proposal is selected. Signing could delay the operations date for months, so maybe mid-November is the new “put up or shut up” date for actual flights. The program will last 3 years, unless extended. While you can look up and slog through the details, if you want a nice summary, go here https://www.reddit.com/r/Joby/s/dQJkVvRvfd _____________________________ LAST WEEK'S POST Here is last week's post if you are interested in how wrong I was 😊 2/28 post: https://www.reddit.com/r/JobyvsArcher/s/hMyIevvqCk ____________________________ Anyway, those are my observations and opinions, and I welcome your comments, predictions and corresctions. submitted by /u/Investinginevtol to r/JobyvsArcher [link] [comments]
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reddit.com |
Investinginevtol |
Mar 7, 2026 |
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Archer Just Did in 7 Years What Joby Couldn't in 20 — And the FAA Agrees
I've been watching the eVTOL space over the past few years and after digging through both shareholder letters, earnings transcripts, press releases, and a fair amount of rabid Googling during that time, I'm convinced we are sitting at a genuine inflection point for $ACHR, similar to the late 2024 craze. The eIPP award announcements are expected to be decided by Today March 3rd and announced in the coming days/weeks, and when that drops alongside everything else building under the hood, this stock will move hard. Let me walk through the full picture. 1. The Certification Gap Is Real — And It Now Favors Archer This is the thesis in a nutshell and most people are sleeping on it. Archer just announced that the FAA has accepted 100% of Midnight's 797 Means of Compliance — making them the first eVTOL company ever to hit this milestone. This isn't a minor paperwork checkbox. The Means of Compliance is the FAA's agreed-upon criteria by which Archer proves Midnight meets airworthiness standards. Completing it 100% unlocks the finalization of their remaining plans and clears the runway for Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) to begin as soon as this year. Now let's talk about Joby, because the bull case for ACHR requires understanding why their main competitor is not as far ahead as their PR would have you believe. Joby's Q4 shareholder letter celebrated a "record 18-point increase" in FAA Stage 4 progress — bringing them to 73% on the FAA side of that stage. They still have Stage 5 entirely ahead of them. They have their own Means of Compliance at 97% (not 100%), and their own letter quietly notes that a portion of those documents remain open specifically to "address design changes and improvements that may occur later in the process." Read that carefully. They haven't locked in their final design. They're essentially telling you in the fine print that their aircraft is still a moving target. In aerospace certification, design changes after you've started formal FAA testing are extraordinarily costly in time and money. Every change ripples through your compliance documentation and testing plans. Archer no longer has that risk, and the FAA has given them 100% approval on their design testing strategy. Joby's certification percentage dashboard looks polished and impressive until you realize those figures are self-reported and inherently subjective — the company itself admits completion "may fluctuate mildly through the course of certification as documents are edited and resubmitted." This is not a rigorous external audit. It's essentially vibes with decimal places. Archer completed a hard, objective milestone: 100% FAA acceptance, full stop. That is not a number that fluctuates. Here's the deeper architectural reason Archer is likely to certify faster: Midnight was designed from day one to look as much like a Part 23 airplane as possible. Archer made a deliberate choice not to reinvent anything the FAA didn't require them to reinvent(unlike Joby trying to reinvent everything down to the onboard air conditioning unit). As a result, Midnight requires only 17 issue papers — 13 of which are industry-standard. The more exotic your aircraft design, the more issue papers, the more novel regulatory territory, the more delay, and most importantly MORE RISK. Markets do not like risk and Archer just derisked themselves massively with this announcement. Joby's aircraft, with its complex tilt-prop mechanism and more novel aerodynamics, faces considerably more certification complexity. They've been at this since 2009. Archer was founded a decade later and is now ahead on the most objective certification milestone that exists. 2. The Payload Problem Joby Doesn't Want to Talk About Joby's business model rests entirely on operating their own air taxi service at scale — they intend to be the Uber of the skies, not the Boeing. That model only works if you can fill enough seats per flight to generate meaningful revenue. The Joby S4 is designed to carry one pilot plus four passengers. On paper that sounds fine. In practice, the aircraft has been dealing with persistent payload and weight issues that have constrained real-world operations. Their aircraft's carrying capacity of approximately(wishfully)
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reddit.com |
No_Loss4967 |
Mar 4, 2026 |
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2/28 Week's progress & what’s coming up
If you don't want to obsess over daily EVTOL activities like me and prefer just a weekly snapshot, you may find this useful and healthy for your mental life. I'm no stock guru, so don’t invest just on my advice. When it comes to speculative stocks, you probably have to look at a 1 year basis or even longer. And let’s remember these are speculative stocks. IMO they will be 30 or 50 times bigger in three or four years. Or they might not. For me, I’m in. ____________________________ JOBY: On February 25 they gave their Q4 earnings report. Lots of progress and accomplishments since October 1. Check out a couple posts on this sub for more details and discussion. An important issue came up about payload. I posted “The elephant in the room” here, and it is worth reading, especially DHD’s explanation that how, even if they aren’t at 4 passengers yet, they can continue with certification and add enhancements simultaneously. The webcast, audiovisuals, etc can be found here. https://ir.jobyaviation.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/174/joby-reports-fourth-quarter-2025-financial-results Uber and Joby unveiled "Uber Air," a new on-demand service using the S4. Possibly helicopters initially as Joby owns Blade. Delta increased its investment in Joby from $60M to $130M Utah teamed up with Arizona, Idaho, Oregon and Oklahoma for a proposal, using Joby and Beta aircraft. North Carolina gave an overview of its eIPP proposal, focusing on connecting the state's medical networks and especially rural areas (since the OBBB gutted Medicaid especially for rural hospitals and clinics) and for disaster relief (since FEMA is also being gutted). First phase focuses on setup, 2nd phase scale with cargo (probably Beta) and experimental EVTOL (Joby), and phase 3 scale up Joby. Also will use Joby’s Superpilot for autonomous flight with the Cessna Grand Caravan. For details: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ncdot\\\_ncdot-eipp-project-snapshot-activity-7429622536579002368-V\\\_W0 BETA: Refer to the eIPP news above regarding Utah and North Carolina. EVTL: In mid-December they predicted full piloted transition flight in early 2026. They did have test flights this week. Not sure why archer sued them for copying a design that archer stole from Wisk. DoubleBubbler, a user who revived the Vertical_Aerospace sub and was one of the mods, had invested heavily and this week sold half. Still a lot of shares. ACHR: Their Q4 ER will be March 2. Besides their lawsuit against EVTL, they announced adding Starlink to Midnight. Though they will have to get FAA certification for the Starlink Mini as the present kit used in jets is too heavy. For what it’s worth, SMG’s Reality index was was updated recently, specifying that Archer has yet to make a first VTOL flight. https://aamrealityindex.com/aam-reality-index No flights since their last test flights in October, but they recently got their airworthiness cert for their next generation prototype so they can test fly it now, though it won’t be used for FAA certification. No timeline given for full transition, so basically same VTOL status since 2024. CHINA/AUTOFLIGHT: Nothing new since they announced their huge EVTOL. Note: battery giant CATL owns 38% of Autoflight CHINA/AEROFUGIA Their AE200 is a six-seater eVTOL featuring a tilt-rotor design with eight electric motors and propellers, enabling seamless transition between vertical takeoff and horizontal flight. In cruise, four rotors tilt to serve as forward propulsion propellers. It has a mission cruise speed of 248 km/h and a maximum speed of 320 km/h, with a range of 200 km. Certification milestone: In May 2025, Aerofugia became the first eVTOL manufacturer in China authorized to conduct short-distance passenger flights, after receiving CCAR-135 certification from China's Civil Aviation Administration (CAAC). They plan to fly in China and Thailand CHINA/VOLANT Volant's first model, the VE25-100, is a six-seat eVTOL (one pilot and five passengers) capable of reaching a maximum cruise speed of 235 km/h and a range of 200 to 400 km. It uses a fully decoupled distributed power architecture with 8 lift systems and 2 thrust systems, allowing independent takeoff and landing of the stacked lift/thrust systems. The VE25 is expected to receive its CAAC airworthiness certificate in 2026 ____________________________ INVESTMENT OBSERVATIONS Feb 26 Needham & Company lowered its price target on Joby Aviation to $18.00 JPMorgan issued a pessimistic forecast for JOBY Feb 23 Raymond James changed its rating on EVTL to Sell Week of February 15: Cannacord adjusted its JOBY price target to $15.50 from $17.00, maintaining a hold rating Jefferies raised BETA’s price target to $30.00 and from a hold to a buy rating. UBS set their price target for BETA to $24.00 with a hold rating. In January, Needhan set its price target for ACHR to $10 with a buy rating I expect more revisions after ACHR’s earnings report ____________________________ WHAT'S COMING UP Here are the ongoing/upcoming events. If you want all the detailed Joby events, go to the r/Joby sub and select “see more” at the top. Here are the key events: 4th Quarter ACHR Earnings - 2:00 p.m. Pacific on March 2. More song and dance! eIPP Project selection is scheduled for March 3, 2026, though they may be a few weeks late. At least 5 proposals will be selected. EVTL earnings report March 16 eIPP operations will begin 90 days after negotiations on the contract are complete and both parties have signed, rather than 90 days after the elPP proposal is selected. Signing could delay the operations date for months, so maybe mid-November is the new “put up or shut up” date for actual flights. The program will last 3 years, unless extended. While you can look up and slog through the details, if you want a nice summary, go here https://www.reddit.com/r/Joby/s/dQJkVvRvfd _____________________________ LAST WEEK'S POST Here is last week's post if you are interested in how wrong I was 😊 2/21 post: https://www.reddit.com/r/JobyvsArcher/s/iDtVoRdQdu ____________________________ Anyway, those are my observations and opinions, and I welcome your comments, predictions and corresctions. submitted by /u/Investinginevtol to r/JobyvsArcher [link] [comments]
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reddit.com |
Investinginevtol |
Mar 1, 2026 |
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2/14 Week's progress & what’s coming up
If you don't want to obsess over daily EVTOL activities like me and prefer just a weekly snapshot, you may find this useful and healthy for your mental life. I'm no stock guru, so don’t invest just on my advice. I truly think that, at the very least, we should look at things on a weekly basis, so i post here. When it comes to speculative stocks, you probably have to look at a 6 month or 1 year basis, which I also display here. And let’s remember these are speculative stocks. IMO they will be 30 or 50 times bigger in three or four years. Or they might not. For me, I’m in. STOCK MOVE OVERVIEW Another terrible week. I should have known that, with not a lot of news, it will get ugly for EVTOL Every year they pop up just before the end of the year and then they drop down. Did I learn? No I did not so I am sitting around watching my stock down 30% and waiting for the recovery. Of course there will be a recovery. It may not even be this quarter, but probably the year. it’s OK if you don’t want to read further after this. You have lots of other stuff to do. If you don’t want to look into more detail there are more sections below, but you don’t really have to read them if you’re invested in EVTOL stock and waiting maybe six months or a year before something happens. ____________________________ ACTIVITY JOBY: Nothing big. Waiting for the February 25 ER BETA: Unfortunately BETA’s quick 22% pop this week was because of a misleading Barron’s article. It insinuated that Amazon purchased 5.3% of BETA, but actually Amazon just restated their investment from 2021. Barron’s has really fallen in quality, just an AI slop shop now. I found this the best time to sell my BETA before it goes lower again. Sold at $18.60, a 45% loss from when I bought it at the IPO. Luckily it was only 100 shares. https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2026-02-12/did-misinformation-spike-beta-stock-price EVTL: In mid-December they predicted full piloted transition flight in early 2026. Besides that elephant in the room, here is what is happening: Vertical has joined Archer and Joby in signing an MOU with various Saudi Arabian authorities for AAM. ACHR: They keep promoting their power train, as Anduril is using it in a 50 drone order. This will produce some income, at least until Evolito produces their much simpler and superior D250 and D500 next year. Announced their Q4 ER for March 2, conveniently (and typically) giving them a week to respond to the Joby ER with similar-but-not-similar “accomplishments”. No progress since their last test flights in October. Still working on the final Midnight aircraft, with fully transitioned flight forecasted, but no timeline given. Same status since 2024. Yawn. CHINA/AUTOFLIGHT: Nothing new. Last week they announced their huge EVTOL. ____________________________ INVESTMENT OBSERVATIONS State street revealed they tripled their holdings of Archer in Q4. Top 5: * Stellantis ~11% * Vanguard ~ 8.4% * BlackRock~8.1% * ARK ~5.4% * State Street 5% No major broker revisions this year. I don’t post reiterations here. Probably will have to wait until earnings reports in February and March. 2 weeks old post, I look for your comments. I am watching IGV (iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF) to bottom out, then I will invest. The financial experts/bozos think that AI will empower people to develop their own software. As a software developer and project manager, this is laughably naive. The worst thing they could do is remove software analysts from developing software. I have been there and I know it. ____________________________ WHAT'S COMING UP Here are the ongoing/upcoming events: The eIPP project submissions occurred Jan 22 2025. Announcements of some proposals are dribbling out and I will track them in a community post. 4th Quarter JOBY Earnings - February 25 4th Quarter ACHR Earnings - 2:00 p.m. Pacific on March 2. More song and dance! eIPP Project selection is scheduled for March 3, 2026, though they may be a few weeks late. At least 5 proposals will be selected. EVTL earnings report: Mid-March eIPP operations will begin 90 days after negotiations on the contract are complete and both parties have signed, rather than 90 days after the elPP proposal is selected. Signing could delay the operations date for months, so maybe mid-November is the new “put up or shut up” date for actual flights. The program will last 3 years, unless extended. While you can look up and slog through the details, if you want a nice summary, go here https://www.reddit.com/r/Joby/s/dQJkVvRvfd ____________________________ LAST WEEK'S POST Here is last week's post if you are interested in how wrong I was 😊 2/6 post: https://www.reddit.com/r/JobyvsArcher/s/mCa0fYubbn ____________________________ Anyway, those are my observations and opinions, and I welcome your comments, predictions and corrections. submitted by /u/Investinginevtol to r/JobyvsArcher [link] [comments]
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reddit.com |
Investinginevtol |
Feb 15, 2026 |
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1/24 Week's progress & what’s coming up
If you don't want to obsess over daily EVTOL activities like me and prefer just a weekly snapshot, you may find this useful. I'm no stock guru, so don’t invest just on my advice. Overall, bad week for multiple reasons. Check the ACTIVITY section below for details why. ____________________________ ACTIVITY ACHR: BlackRock upped ACHR Position by 16.77% to Hit 8.1% Ownership. It probably helped prop up their price vs. the overall EVTOL drop. AG was “investing” Archer’s funds to hobnob at Davos, and got Serbia to sign an agreement selecting Archer as its preferred air taxi partner for EXPO 2027, including an option for Serbia to order an initial fleet of up to 25 Midnight aircraft. Rumor has it Joby will do a flyby at the expo and drop a little swag on Archer’s pavilion, as it’s doubtful Midnight will fly by then. Recently, there was a lawsuit against Archer about stock fraud. This is from a bunch of bottom feeders in Texas and should be ignored in my opinion. Still working on the final Midnight aircraft, with fully transitioned flight forecasted, but no timeline given. Same status since 2024. No test flights since October 24. JOBY: Multiple reports say JPMorgan recently named Joby Aviation one of its top short ideas in a new thematic research note, arguing the stock trades at an aggressive premium despite a long road to certification and profitability. Probably a drag on the stock this week. No one from Joby went to Davos, instead focusing on FAA certification. EVTL: In their Jan 20 meeting, they authorized share capital from 200 million ordinary shares and 10 million preferred shares to 1 billion ordinary shares and 10 million preferred shares. It does give them lots of flexibility to sell more shares to partners, but no other partner announcements were made. No dilution unless they distribute or sell these shares. Probably made a drag on the stock this week. Still no piloted EVTOL transition demo, a delay from planned December 2025. BETA No news. So the stock slips again. CHINA/AUTOFLIGHT: AutoFlight completed a 2-ton eVTOL mission to an offshore oil platform, flying its certified CarryAll aircraft more than 150 km to supply critical cargo. This represents one of the first real-world, heavy-lift eVTOL logistic missions under operational conditions and highlights commercial viability for industrial applications outside urban air taxi use cases ____________________________ INVESTMENT OBSERVATIONS No major broker revisions last week. I don’t post reiterations here. Probably will have to wait until earnings reports in February. Previous revisions: JOBY: JPMorgan recently named Joby Aviation one of its top short ideas in a new thematic research note EVTL: On Dec 29 Canaccord joined Needham with a buy rating and PT of $11 BETA: December 18, 2025, Bank of America raised its price target rom 35 to 37 dollars and reiterated a “buy/overweight” rating. While not always predictable, oftentimes we will see big price swings in the morning and then a reversion back to the mean late in the day. Probably due to the leveraged 2X ETFs JOBX and ARCX. So, in my purchases if there was a big drop I bought early and a big rise bought later in the day __________________________________ WHAT'S COMING UP Here are the ongoing/upcoming events: The eIPP project submissions occurred Jan 22 2025. If we get to see the proposals, this should tell us the confidence Archer and Beta have in their EVTOL capabilities. 4th Quarter JOBY & ACHR Earnings - Estimated late February eIPP Project selection is scheduled for March 3, 2026, though they may may be a few weeks late with these new delays. At least 5 proposals will be selected. Revised timeline: operations will begin 90 days after negotiations on the contract are complete and both parties have signed, rather than 90 days after the elPP proposal is selected. Signing could delay the operations date for months, so maybe mid-November is the new “put up or shut up” date. The program will last 3 years, unless extended. While you can look up and slog through the details, if you want a nice summary, go here https://www.reddit.com/r/Joby/s/dQJkVvRvfd ___________________________ PERSONAL INVESTMENT STATUS Full transparency: My portfolio in Joby is now 11% of total, Down to 1% in EVTL (sold half before the meeting), 1% in BETA. Also 1 share of ACHR (cost $3.16 from 2024) and I plan to get back in if I see a piloted demonstration of true EVTOL. Until then, I can't afford the risk. The rest of my investments are mostly bonds (SCHI, SCHZ, GABX, PHK) except for high dividend stocks like VZ, and some GOOGL. __________________________________ LAST WEEK'S POST Here is last week's post if you are interested in how wrong I was 😊 1/16 post: https://www.reddit.com/r/JobyvsArcher/s/u1KMMllvEt __________________________________ submitted by /u/Investinginevtol to r/JobyvsArcher [link] [comments]
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reddit.com |
Investinginevtol |
Jan 24, 2026 |
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**Joby Aviation, Inc.** ($JOBY): Joby Aviation CPO Sells $464K in Stock for Tax Obligations
SEC EDGAR FILING ALERT Company Information Company: Joby Aviation, Inc. ($JOBY) Form Type: 4 Filing Date: 10/14/2025 Trading Significance: MEDIUM SIGNIFICANCE - Notable market activity Insider Details Name: Allison Eric Title: Chief Product Officer Relationship: Officer Transaction Details Transaction Type: Sell Security Type: Common Stock Shares Transacted: 27,537 Price per Share: $16.84 Total Value: $463,723.08 Shares Owned After: 692,428 Acquisition/Disposition: D Market Context This SEC EDGAR filing provides transparency into insider sentiment and trading activity. Consider this information alongside broader market conditions and fundamental analysis. 📊 COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS SEC Filing Analysis: Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY) Executive Summary Trading Significance: Medium Key Takeaway: The Chief Product Officer's sale of approximately $464k in stock was a non-discretionary "sell-to-cover" transaction to satisfy tax obligations on newly vested Restricted Stock Units (RSUs). It does not indicate a change in the insider's outlook on the company. Market Impact: The market impact is expected to be neutral, as informed investors typically recognize sell-to-cover transactions as routine and not indicative of bearish sentiment. Company Information Field Value Company Joby Aviation, Inc. Ticker Symbol JOBY CIK 0001819848 Industry Aircraft Manufacturing Insider Information Field Value Name Allison Eric CIK 0001877636 Title/Position Chief Product Officer Relationship Officer Transaction Details Field Value Form Type 4 Transaction Date 2025-10-13 Transaction Code S (Sale) Security Type Common Stock Shares Involved 27,537 Price Per Share $16.84 Total Value $463,723.08 Shares Owned After 692,428 Ownership Type Direct Market Impact Analysis Stock Impact Prediction Direction: Neutral Reasoning: The filing's footnote explicitly states the sale was to cover taxes due upon the settlement of RSUs. These are automated, non-discretionary sales that are required for tax withholding purposes. They do not reflect a voluntary decision by the insider to reduce their investment in the company. Volume & Sentiment Expected Volume Impact: The transaction may cause a minor, short-term increase in trading volume but is unlikely to have a sustained impact. Sentiment Indicator: Neutral. The context provided by the footnote clarifies the nature of the sale, preventing it from being misinterpreted as a bearish signal. Investment Insights Positive Market Indicators The insider still holds a substantial position of 692,428 shares after the sale, valued at over $11.6 million at the transaction price, indicating strong continued alignment with shareholder interests. The underlying event was the vesting of 53,549 RSUs, which is part of the executive's long-term compensation and signifies continued service to the company. Risk Factors The primary risk is the misinterpretation of this transaction as a discretionary sale by uninformed market participants, which could create temporary negative price pressure. Key Takeaways Tax-Motivated Sale: The CPO sold 27,537 shares for ~$464k, but this was explicitly to cover tax liabilities. Not a Bearish Signal: This was not a discretionary sale reflecting a negative outlook. It is a common and planned part of executive compensation. Substantial Remaining Stake: The insider's remaining large holding demonstrates a significant ongoing financial interest in the company's success. Contextual Analysis Timing Significance The sale occurred on October 13, one day after the RSUs vested on October 12. This close timing is characteristic of an automated sell-to-cover arrangement, where shares are sold immediately upon vesting to meet the tax withholding requirement. Transaction Context Footnote F1 is critical: "Represents the aggregate number of shares sold by the Reporting Person to cover taxes due upon the release and settlement of the RSUs, as required by the terms of the RSU award." This confirms the non-discretionary nature of the sale. The filing shows a two-step process: the acquisition of 53,549 shares via RSU vesting (Code 'M') followed by the sale of 27,537 of those shares to pay taxes (Code 'S'). Company Context Joby Aviation operates in the innovative and capital-intensive eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing) aircraft sector. Insider transactions are closely watched, but it's crucial to differentiate between discretionary trades and automated compensation-related events like this one. Risk Assessment Risk Level: Low Risk Factors Misinterpretation Risk: The headline number of a ~$464k sale could be misinterpreted without reading the filing's details. No New Information: The transaction does not provide new insight into the company's operational performance or future prospects. Market Considerations Institutional Understanding: Sophisticated investors and algorithms are typically programmed to identify and discount sell-to-cover transactions. Focus on Fundamentals: Long-term value will be driven by the company achieving its technological and commercial milestones, not by routine insider tax sales. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. The information presented is based on publicly available SEC filings and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Analysis generated on 2025-10-14 | Data source: SEC EDGAR Important Disclaimer This is PUBLIC SEC data for educational purposes only. NOT investment advice! Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Join our community for real-time alerts & discussions: https://discord.gg/XSf4Njup View Original SEC Filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1877636/000181984825000585/0001819848-25-000585-index.htm This post is automated and based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. All data is sourced directly from official SEC databases. Tags for visibility: #SECFiling #InsiderTrading #JOBY #JobyAviation #Form4 #InsiderSell #StockMarket #Investing #EVTOL #StockAlert submitted by /u/Educational_Cup9809 to r/SECWatch [link] [comments]
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reddit.com |
Educational_Cup9809 |
Oct 14, 2025 |
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Joby Aviation Officer Files Intent to Sell $350k in Stock
SEC EDGAR FILING ALERT Company Information Company: Joby Aviation, Inc. Form Type: 144 Filing Date: 10/14/2025 Trading Significance: MEDIUM SIGNIFICANCE - Notable market activity Insider Details Name: DeHoff Kate Title: Officer Relationship: Officer Transaction Details Transaction Type: Proposed Sale Security Type: Common Shares Transacted: 20,824 Price per Share: $16.77 Total Value: $349,218.48 Shares Owned After: N/A Acquisition/Disposition: D Market Context This SEC EDGAR filing provides transparency into insider sentiment and trading activity. Consider this information alongside broader market conditions and fundamental analysis. 📊 COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS SEC Filing Analysis: Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY) Executive Summary Trading Significance: Medium Key Takeaway: An officer at Joby Aviation has filed a notice of intent to sell approximately $350k worth of common stock, continuing a pattern of regular sales likely executed under a 10b5-1 trading plan. Market Impact: The impact is likely neutral to mildly bearish. While insider selling can be a negative signal, the pre-planned nature of the transaction (related to vesting RSUs and a 10b5-1 plan) mitigates concerns about it being based on adverse insider information. Company Information Field Value Company Joby Aviation, Inc. Ticker Symbol JOBY (Inferred, not in filing) CIK 0001819848 Industry Aircraft Manufacturing Insider Information Field Value Name DeHoff Kate CIK 0001877282 Title/Position Officer Relationship Officer Transaction Details Field Value Form Type 144 (Notice of Proposed Sale) Transaction Date 2025-10-14 (Approximate Sale Date) Transaction Code S (Sale) Security Type Common Stock Shares Involved 20,824 Price Per Share $16.77 (Calculated) Total Value $349,218.48 Shares Owned After Not Disclosed Ownership Type Not Disclosed Market Impact Analysis Stock Impact Prediction Direction: Neutral Reasoning: Form 144 filings for sales under a 10b5-1 plan are generally viewed by the market as routine and non-eventful. The sale is tied to the vesting of RSUs, a common reason for insiders to sell shares to cover tax liabilities and for liquidity. The market has likely priced in this type of regular selling from executives. Volume & Sentiment Expected Volume Impact: Minimal. The size of the sale is small relative to the typical daily trading volume of a company like Joby Aviation. Sentiment Indicator: Neutral. The filing confirms a pre-existing selling plan rather than a new, spontaneous decision to sell, which reduces the bearish sentiment typically associated with insider sales. Investment Insights Positive Market Indicators The existence of a 10b5-1 plan, adopted on May 13, 2025, provides transparency and indicates the sales are not based on immediate, material non-public information. Risk Factors Consistent selling by an officer, even if planned, represents a steady supply of shares entering the market and a reduction in the insider's direct ownership stake over time. The filing documents over $1.5 million in sales by this insider in the preceding three months, a significant amount of capital being divested. Key Takeaways Planned Liquidation: This is not an opportunistic sale but a planned liquidation of vested equity compensation. Tax-Related Sale: The timing, following the vesting of RSUs, strongly suggests the sale is, at least in part, to cover income tax obligations incurred upon vesting. Pattern Confirmation: This filing reinforces a known pattern of selling by the insider, reducing its significance as a standalone signal. Contextual Analysis Timing Significance The filing date of October 14, 2025, follows the vesting of RSUs between October 1 and October 12, 2025. This close timing is typical for 'sell-to-cover' transactions related to equity compensation. Transaction Context The filing explicitly states, "The securities to be sold were acquired upon the vesting of restricted stock units." Furthermore, the document lists a 10b5-1 plan adoption date and details several prior sales in the last 3 months, some of which are explicitly labeled "10b5-1 Sales." This context is crucial, as it frames the transaction as automated and pre-planned. Company Context This analysis does not include external company news. However, an investor should consider this filing in the context of Joby Aviation's recent performance, news flow, and developments in the eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing) industry. Risk Assessment Risk Level: Low Risk Factors Continuous Selling Pressure: While each individual sale is small, the cumulative effect of continuous selling by insiders could create a headwind for the stock price. Perception: Even planned sales can be perceived negatively by some retail investors if the selling is persistent and large over time. Market Considerations 10b5-1 Plans: The market is generally efficient at distinguishing between spontaneous insider trades and planned trades under 10b5-1 plans. Compensation Structure: In high-growth and tech companies, a significant portion of executive compensation is in equity, making regular sales a normal part of personal financial management for executives. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. The information presented is based on publicly available SEC filings and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Analysis generated on 2025-10-14 | Data source: SEC EDGAR Important Disclaimer This is PUBLIC SEC data for educational purposes only. NOT investment advice! Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Join our community for real-time alerts & discussions: https://discord.gg/XSf4Njup View Original SEC Filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1877282/000195004725007941/0001950047-25-007941-index.htm This post is automated and based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. All data is sourced directly from official SEC databases. Tags for visibility: #SECFiling #InsiderTrading #JobyAviation #JOBY #Form144 #InsiderSelling #StockAlert #Investing #MarketAnalysis #CorporateGovernance submitted by /u/Educational_Cup9809 to r/SECWatch [link] [comments]
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reddit.com |
Educational_Cup9809 |
Oct 14, 2025 |
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Why The AI Bubble May Not Pop Anytime Soon
Let's first set aside the fact that every valuation metric is nearing their most historically elevated levels. Valuation isn't a timing mechanism, and while it's a good metric for judging forward returns, PE ratios don't exist in a vacuum. But even with valuations at elevated levels, it takes much more for a pure washout. In 2008, it was leverage...which was prevalent throughout the entire system (from banks to investors to consumers). In 2000, it was an entire sector that was created overnight that had no prospect of earnings. Valuations are a decent predictor for long-term forward returns, but that's about as far as it goes. There's no indication that a 40x CAPE means that the market "has" to crash. As far as I can tell, there's no relationship between PE ratio and drawdown magnitude. So while I think it's a decent bet to predict that stocks will outperform bonds by only a few basis points over the next decade, I don't think we can predict what that path looks like. Here's why I don't expect a crash. It's very difficult to go bankrupt without any debt. ~ Peter Lynch I think in order to see a true washout, we need to see large companies disappear basically overnight. In 2008, that was driven by immense leverage that infected the entire financial system from banks to investors to consumers. In 2000, the Nasdaq was filled with companies that were priced off of impossible future earnings. Today, just look at the market. Look at the S&P 500 constituents. Aside from the top 10, it's filled with real companies with real earnings. And corporate leverage is very low. Interest coverage ratios are well within historical bounds (Goldman Sachs: Exhibit 11 & JPM: Page 13). And these should only improve as rates come down. And yes, the Mag 7 make up 30% of the index. But even if the market grew a conscience tomorrow and re-rated the Mag 7 down by 40%, that only represents a 12% decline in the market. The system isn't static. I owned META in 2022 when it was trading at single digit PE levels. I sold it on the basis that the metaverse was a business endeavor that was a destruction in value. They were burning so much cash on it. Later that year, Zuck announced that they were scaling back investment on that project, and the rest was history. I never bought back in. This is an important lesson when looking at the current state of fiscal policy. We shouldn’t anchor to the 30% global tariffs and 130% tariffs on iPhones. As policy changes, we should update our valuation assumptions with it. I do think we should be cognizant of how unhinged and random the administration is with trade policy, and perhaps ‘some’ extra risk premium should be applied to the market to account for it, but we probably shouldn’t expect some massive repricing event right now. Yes, tariffs are still on, but the 10% range is something that is much more palatable for US businesses and consumers. Also, the walk-back in policy this past week does signal that the POTUS put is in play. Donald does care what markets are doing. ~ Me, April 12th, 2025 This lesson extends to AI capex as well. There's nothing that says that if AI isn't working out that all these companies have to stick with those projects. And the outcome is net zero. Whatever cash comes off of Nvidia's CF statement only lifts the bottom line for the other constituents. So sure, Nvidia probably gets hammered. But it only helps the other companies' bottom lines. That's not to say Microsoft and Google, et. al won't get hurt. There's a lot of potential energy stored in these AI projects. But if the market deems AI as a money-loser, I can only imagine the market will cheer if they pare back on AI projects. There still is some bubble behavior. With all that being said, there are some pockets of the market that do worry me. Companies like Oklo, Quantumscape, Joby are all pricing in the prospects of a very different future. And that's usually a bad bet. I'm also seeing companies like Solid Power being resurrected from the dead despite having no product, no potential of a product, and on no news. That stock is up almost 7-fold off the lows. These are just a few of the stocks that I follow; you probably personally see it in your own areas of interest. But we're still no where near the levels of euphoria that we saw in late 2020 / early 2021 where ARK funds were a "sure thing" and NFTs were auctioning for millions. That's the level of behavior that I think I want to see before I got worried about euphoria. And yes, tariffs worry me, and the prospect of a trade war worries me. But again, the system is dynamic. There's really nothing that says tariffs = recession in the same way that Covid didn't equal a global financial meltdown. Summary I don't think I see a path to a stock market washout, just yet. 2021 & 2000 are the models for euphoria. 2008 is the model for financial irresponsibility. We currently have neither. AI probably is a bubble, but I also don't think we're pricing in some manic level of optimism there either. Maybe if we get to a point where AI tokens become a line item on balance sheets, then I'll start to worry. We're not there yet. That's not to say there isn't excess we could work off, though. And if you're scared of a 20% - 30% correction, that's perfectly okay. It's probably just a sign that you're not positioned correctly for your risk tolerance. I'm not full equities, and I'm certainly no where near 100% US stocks. In a world where investors are going increasingly risk-on, it makes sense to take your foot off the pedal. But we also shouldn't let the prospect of a 25% correction shake us out of the markets completely. To end with another Peter Lynch quote: Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves. ~ Peter Lynch submitted by /u/beerion to r/ValueInvesting [link] [comments]
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reddit.com |
beerion |
Oct 14, 2025 |
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**Joby Aviation, Inc.** ($JOBY): Joby Aviation Officer Files Intent to Sell $166K in Stock
SEC EDGAR FILING ALERT Company Information Company: Joby Aviation, Inc. ($JOBY) Form Type: 144 Filing Date: 10/10/2025 Trading Significance: MEDIUM SIGNIFICANCE - Notable market activity Insider Details Name: Katherine DeHoff Title: N/A Relationship: Officer Transaction Details Transaction Type: Proposed Sale Security Type: Common Stock Shares Transacted: 10,197 Price per Share: $16.28 Total Value: $166,007.16 Shares Owned After: N/A Acquisition/Disposition: D Market Context This SEC EDGAR filing provides transparency into insider sentiment and trading activity. Consider this information alongside broader market conditions and fundamental analysis. 📊 COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS SEC Filing Analysis: Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY) Executive Summary Trading Significance: Medium Key Takeaway: An officer at Joby Aviation has filed a notice of intent to sell approximately $166,007 worth of common stock, continuing a pattern of regular selling over the past quarter. Market Impact: The market impact is likely neutral to slightly bearish. While consistent insider selling can be a negative signal, the shares originate from an equity compensation plan, which often involves pre-planned sales for diversification or tax purposes. Company Information Field Value Company Joby Aviation, Inc. Ticker Symbol JOBY CIK 0001819848 Industry Aircraft Manufacturing Insider Information Field Value Name Katherine DeHoff CIK 0001877282 Title/Position Officer Relationship Officer Transaction Details Field Value Form Type 144 (Notice of Proposed Sale) Transaction Date ~2025-10-13 (Approximate) Transaction Code Not Applicable Security Type Common Stock Shares Involved 10,197 Price Per Share ~$16.28 (Calculated) Total Value $166,007.16 Shares Owned After Not Disclosed Ownership Type Not Disclosed Market Impact Analysis Stock Impact Prediction Direction: Neutral to Negative Reasoning: A single sale of this size is not typically market-moving. However, this filing is part of a larger pattern of dispositions by the same officer, totaling over $1.4 million in the last three months. Continuous selling by an officer can weigh on investor sentiment, but the context of the shares originating from compensation mitigates some of the negative perception. Volume & Sentiment Expected Volume Impact: Minimal. Form 144 allows the sale to occur over a period, so the impact may be absorbed without a noticeable volume spike. Sentiment Indicator: Neutral. The sale appears to be a routine part of managing executive compensation rather than a reaction to negative unpublished information. Investment Insights Positive Market Indicators The sale is transparently filed, indicating a routine and compliant disposition. Risk Factors Consistent Selling Pressure: The insider has sold a significant amount of stock in the preceding three months, which could signal a peak valuation in the insider's view or simply a desire for liquidity. Key Takeaways Planned Disposition: This is a Form 144, a notice of intent to sell, suggesting a planned and orderly transaction, not a panic sale. Compensation-Related Sale: The shares were acquired via Restricted Stock Units (RSUs), a common source for insider sales used for tax obligations and portfolio diversification. Pattern of Selling: This transaction continues a trend. In the 90 days prior to this filing, the same insider sold an additional 95,871 shares for gross proceeds of approximately $1.45 million. Contextual Analysis Timing Significance The filing on October 10, 2025, for a sale around October 13, 2025, does not coincide with any obvious major corporate events based on the filing alone. The timing appears routine. Transaction Context The filing explicitly states the shares to be sold were acquired as vested RSUs under the company's 2016 Stock Option and Grant Plan. This strongly suggests the sale is part of a financial planning strategy for the executive. Company Context Joby Aviation operates in the highly speculative and capital-intensive eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing) aircraft sector. Insider sales are common in such pre-revenue or early-revenue growth companies as executives seek to realize value from their equity compensation. Risk Assessment Risk Level: Medium Risk Factors Insider Perception: A consistent stream of sales from a key officer, regardless of the reason, can be perceived negatively by the market. Concentrated Selling: Although this specific sale is modest, the cumulative total of sales from one insider is substantial. Market Sensitivity: Stocks in speculative sectors like eVTOL can be highly sensitive to insider sentiment signals. Market Considerations The sale is relatively small compared to the company's total outstanding shares (10,197 out of 855,981,489). The nature of the sale (related to compensation) is a significant mitigating factor. Investors should monitor if other insiders begin selling or if the pace of selling by this insider accelerates. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. The information presented is based on publicly available SEC filings and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Analysis generated on 2025-10-10 | Data source: SEC EDGAR Important Disclaimer This is PUBLIC SEC data for educational purposes only. NOT investment advice! Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Join our community for real-time alerts & discussions: https://discord.gg/XSf4Njup View Original SEC Filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819848/000187728225000008/0001877282-25-000008-index.htm This post is automated and based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. All data is sourced directly from official SEC databases. Tags for visibility: #SECFiling #InsiderTrading #JOBY #JobyAviation #Form144 #InsiderSell #StockMarket #Investing #EVTOL #StockAlert submitted by /u/Educational_Cup9809 to r/SECWatch [link] [comments]
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reddit.com |
Educational_Cup9809 |
Oct 10, 2025 |
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**Joby Aviation, Inc.** ($JOBY): Joby Aviation Officer Files Intent to Sell $553K in Stock
SEC EDGAR FILING ALERT Company Information Company: Joby Aviation, Inc. ($JOBY) Form Type: 144 Filing Date: 10/10/2025 Trading Significance: MEDIUM SIGNIFICANCE - Notable market activity Insider Details Name: Eric Allison Title: N/A Relationship: Officer Transaction Details Transaction Type: Proposed Sale Security Type: Common Stock Shares Transacted: 33,991 Price per Share: $16.28 Total Value: $553,373.48 Shares Owned After: N/A Acquisition/Disposition: D Market Context This SEC EDGAR filing provides transparency into insider sentiment and trading activity. Consider this information alongside broader market conditions and fundamental analysis. 📊 COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS SEC Filing Analysis: Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY) Executive Summary Trading Significance: Medium Key Takeaway: An officer at Joby Aviation, Eric Allison, has filed a Form 144 indicating an intent to sell 33,991 shares of common stock valued at approximately $553,373. The sale is related to the vesting of Restricted Stock Units (RSUs). Market Impact: The impact is likely neutral to slightly bearish. While insider sales can be perceived negatively, this sale is tied to equity compensation, a common reason for executives to sell shares. The filing also discloses a pattern of selling over the past three months. Company Information Field Value Company Joby Aviation, Inc. Ticker Symbol JOBY CIK 0001819848 Industry Aircraft [3721] Insider Information Field Value Name Eric Allison CIK 0001877636 Title/Position Not specified in filing Relationship Officer Transaction Details Field Value Form Type 144 (Notice of Proposed Sale) Approx. Sale Date 2025-10-13 Transaction Code Not Applicable Security Type Common Stock Shares Involved 33,991 Aggregate Market Value $553,373.48 Approx. Price Per Share $16.28 Shares Owned After Not specified in filing Ownership Type Not specified in filing Market Impact Analysis Stock Impact Prediction Direction: Neutral to Slightly Bearish Reasoning: The sale is by a company officer, which can attract scrutiny. However, the context that these shares were acquired as compensation (RSUs) and are likely being sold for liquidity or tax purposes mitigates the negative signal. The market may view this as a routine executive financial planning move rather than a lack of confidence in the company's future. Volume & Sentiment Expected Volume Impact: A minor increase in trading volume may occur around the approximate sale date as the shares enter the market. Sentiment Indicator: Neutral. The transparency of the Form 144 filing and the common nature of selling vested RSUs should prevent significant negative sentiment. Investment Insights Positive Market Indicators The sale is linked to a compensation plan, suggesting it may be a pre-planned event for financial management rather than a reaction to negative internal news. Risk Factors This transaction is part of a recent pattern of selling. The filing notes two other sales by the same insider in the past three months, totaling over $442,000. A consistent pattern of selling by insiders can sometimes be a bearish signal. Key Takeaways Compensation-Driven Sale: The shares were acquired via RSU vesting, making this a common type of insider sale for liquidity. Notice of Intent: Form 144 is a notice of a proposed sale, not a completed one. The transaction will occur on or after the approximate sale date. Pattern of Selling: This is the latest in a series of sales by this insider, a trend that investors may want to monitor. Contextual Analysis Timing Significance The filing on October 10, 2025, for a sale around October 13, 2025, follows the acquisition of the shares via RSU vesting on October 12, 2025. This close timing strongly supports the conclusion that the sale is for managing the newly vested equity. Transaction Context The filing explicitly states the shares were acquired as "Restricted Stock Units granted under issuer's 2016 Stock Option and Grant Plan" and the nature of payment was "Compensation". This removes much of the speculation about the motive for the sale. Company Context Joby Aviation operates in the innovative but capital-intensive eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing) aircraft sector. Investors closely watch insider activity for signs of confidence in the company's long-term and capital-heavy roadmap. Risk Assessment Risk Level: Low to Medium Risk Factors Sentiment Risk: Any insider sale can be interpreted negatively by the market, regardless of context. Concentrated Selling: A continued pattern of sales from one or more insiders could increase bearish sentiment over time. Market Perception: In a volatile sector like eVTOL, insider sales can be magnified by market sentiment. Market Considerations The overall market conditions and specific news related to Joby Aviation or the eVTOL industry will influence how this sale is perceived. Investors should compare this activity to insider transactions at peer companies. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. The information presented is based on publicly available SEC filings and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Analysis generated on 2025-10-10 | Data source: SEC EDGAR Important Disclaimer This is PUBLIC SEC data for educational purposes only. NOT investment advice! Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Join our community for real-time alerts & discussions: https://discord.gg/XSf4Njup View Original SEC Filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819848/000187763625000006/0001877636-25-000006-index.htm This post is automated and based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. All data is sourced directly from official SEC databases. Tags for visibility: #SECFiling #InsiderTrading #JOBY #JobyAviation #Form144 #StockSale #MarketAnalysis #Investing #EVTOL submitted by /u/Educational_Cup9809 to r/SECWatch [link] [comments]
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reddit.com |
Educational_Cup9809 |
Oct 10, 2025 |
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10/10 What happened last week & what’s coming up
I’m no stock guru, so don’t invest just on my advice, but here are my observations for the past and upcoming weeks. Please add your comments. WHAT HAPPENED THIS WEEK For speculative stocks like JOBY and ACHR, if the market is down, it will be a drag on these stocks, as you can see today from our fearless leader's brain fart of a tweet. Couldn't he have just waited for the market to close and let us digest it for a couple days? That said, many think this is a negotiating ploy, and stocks will recover in a week or 2. Overall I'm still way bullish. While up over 23%(!) for the month, JOBY's 3% dilution, raising over half a billion at $16.85 per share appears to hit it hard this week. 2 weeks ago i called the floor at 15. Since Morgan Stanley reset their price only to 15, and as they can buy 16M shares at 16.85, l'm going to sit at 15 and wait a week. But man, I saw JOBY almost hit 20! Patience, padawan. For ACHR, up over 44%(!!) in the last month, it looks obvious to me that the floor is higher than the low 9s I thought 2 weeks ago, but with all the volatility due to the unsubstantiated Tesla rumors, I’m going to wait a week before discussing any floor for them. Note over at r/ACHR they are still beating the Tesla drums multiple times a day, without a hint of proof. I guess it's a good way to let investors down easily so they don't think they have been scammed and sue for market manipulation. I read Cathy Wood bought more ACHR, a plus for them. Here is Joby's press release regarding their dilution https://www.jobyaviation.com/news/joby-aviation-announces-pricing-of-underwritten-offering-of-common-stock/ My highlight for the week was going to the Salinas International Airshow. Got to sit in all the Joby S4' s seats and watched it fly over, hover and transition back. It's real folks. PERSONAL INVESTMENT STATUS With the drop in price this week,Joby's share of my investments is now 12%, and barring a catastrophic market meltdown, I'm going to ride this investment to 2029 at least. My average cost is $15.29, which I bought back over the last month, after selling all after the Q2 ER. I have 1 share of ACHR (cost $3.16 from 2024) and won't invest more until I see a piloted demonstration of true EVTOL. Here are the numbers for the week, descending by market cap. Stock, change, this week's closing, last week's closing,: JOBY -11.0% 10/10 $16.29 10/3 $18.28 NOTE JOBX was down 22% ACHR +3.5% 10/10 $11.98 10/3 $11.57 EVEX -.6% 10/10 $4.55 10/3 $4.58 EVTL -11.3% 10/10 $5.32 10/3 $6.00 HOVR +9.1% 10/10 $2.87 10/3 $2.63 BETA Technologies stock: will be going public, probably Q1 2026. JOBY/ACHR market cap ratio is: 10/10: 193% 10/3: 209% 9/26: 230% 9/19: 223% INVESTMENT OBSERVATIONS While not always predictable, oftentimes we will see big price swings in the morning and then a reversion back to the mean late in the day. Probably due to the leveraged 2X ETFs JOBX and ARCX. So, in my purchases if there was a big drop I bought early and a big rise bought later in the day. I look forward to reports on institutional investments changes. I highlighted the following post a couple weeks ago, and with the the demos in Salinas and Osaka, it still seems relevant: u/Responsible_Rise7196 had an interesting insight into how the news and air shows affect EVTOL stock prices. It's not day trading but momentum trading. You might want to check it out. https://www.reddit.com/r/JobyvsArcher/s/AtuhVwofft https://docs.google.com/document/d/1KSWv2LlJTjYBguAIYWK6OA8siQwts4EBaBCv-tBlPRY/mobilebasic WHAT'S COMING UP I don’t see much else happening until Q3 ER 11/05 and then Dubai on 11/27, unless we get announcements about a Joby conforming aircraft or L3Harris demos or a true EVTOL aircraft demo from Archer. Or an aircraft or the market crashes, of course. Here are ongoing/upcoming events: Osaka Expo - Joby Demo Flights Oct 1 - 13 Q3 Earnings (Estimated) November 5 5PM Eastern US Q3 Archer earnings November 6 Dubai Air Show - Demo Flights TBD Nov 17 - 21 Imagine all the billionaires in Dubai on November 17 watching Joby fly around while noone else can demonstrate EVTOL. These kingdoms are very jealous of each other. They also have tons of cash, maybe paying some to get ahead of the line pre-ordering. I'm just saying' I am paraphrasing a comment from dad191 on r/Joby: Stop the trolling and bs hype. Let's get the S4 certified and let's see the new Midnight get released and transition. Let's see what sort of defense versions are released. Let's see passengers flying in UAE. Let's see where the vertiports will be placed around LA and NY. Let's see how well Elevate integration works across Uber, Joby, and Delta. Let's see how Archer responds to Joby's Elevate. What are the next countries that are going to come on board with either Archer or Joby? There are so many exciting things to discuss regarding the future of aviation. Do we really want to spend time discussing nonsense photos with arrows drawn in, when the public is welcome to sit in an S4 at the next airshow and see for themselves? LAST WEEK'S POST Here is last week's post if you are interested in how wrong I was 😊 https://www.reddit.com/r/JobyvsArcher/s/fCnejplJkr Anyway, those are my observations and opinions, and I welcome your comments, predictions and corrections. submitted by /u/Investinginevtol to r/JobyvsArcher [link] [comments]
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reddit.com |
Investinginevtol |
Oct 10, 2025 |
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9/19 JOBY & ACHR What happened last week & what’s coming up
I’m no stock guru, so don’t invest just on my advice, but here are my observations for the past and upcoming weeks. PLEASE add your comments. Since the executive order's eIPP RFP came out, it appears ACHR's floor improved from the mid 8s to the low 9s, and JOBY from 13 to 14. And then came Friday. Wow. Remember it was triple witching day so more volatility, but still a day and week to put a smile on every investor's face: JOBY up 13% for the week ACHR 6% EVTL 7% HOVR 29% It was observed that JOBY's market cap seems to be settling at double that of ACHR's. Not sure which tail is wagging which dog there. EVTL had a wild week, dropping 9% on Tuesday, then on Thursday "never mind" it bounced back. With Mudrick Capital owning 55% of all stock, and only $520 M market cap, I'm going to stay away from buying them, as the stock appears to be at the whims of one institution. You are welcome to post Vertical Aerospace, Hover and other developments here, of course. After all, if (big if) Archer abandons Midnight in the next 6 months or so and their stock tanks, I might have to change the subreddit's title to JobyvsEVTL or JobyvsBeta or JobyvsOthers. I'm slowly creeping back up to my 10% off all investments position in JOBY. There is major morning volatility, so I wait until mid day to buy. Except on Fridays 😬 The only major event is in China, on Monday and Tuesday. The 2025 Shenzhen eVTOL Industry Development Innovation Conference. This could give an insight on their progress, tho it appears little so far (refer to https://www.reddit.com/r/Joby/s/Pfzj7zgGQr ). I do NOT want to change this subreddit's name to JobyvsChina. Remember October 1-13 Joby will be flying a couple times a day at Expo 25 in Osaka, Japan. Over 150,000 people a day will see it. FYI Archer canceled their exhibit. Dumb move of the week: I accidentally bought 375 shares JOBX (instead of JOBY. Should have worn my reading glasses) on Tuesday and as soon as allowed, sold it Thursday morning for a tidy $30 profit, just to be safe. If I had just left it I would be up $3200. Still going to avoid JOBX. A run like this often brings the price down a bit later. The rest below is a repeat of some of last week's post, that I think is still relevant. In Q2: ARK and Vanguard greatly increased their stakes in ACHR (by 65% and 82% respectively) JOBY had a number of institutions increase their holdings https://www.perplexity.ai/search/63cc2bf9-85b7-437f-a555-fdd9be7d0857#1 Anyway, those are my observations and opinions, and I welcome your comments, predictions and corrections. submitted by /u/Investinginevtol to r/JobyvsArcher [link] [comments]
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reddit.com |
Investinginevtol |
Sep 19, 2025 |
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JOBY & ACHR stock, what happened last week & what’s coming up
I’m no stock guru, so don’t invest just on my advice, but here are my observations for the week. From what I read from multiple posts, there were hints of institutional investors buying more because of the Executive Order for advanced air mobility's RFP was issued. September 10. That could explain ACHR (up 5.9% since since Sep. 10) and JOBY ( up 5.5%), but not EVTL (up 9.2%) as they aren't US based so are excluded. While they typically follow the SP500 but with greater volatility, the SP500 only climbed 1%. Short term swings may also be explained by institutional investors adding to their portfolios, but we can only look over larger periods. In Q2: ARK or Vanguard increased their stakes in ACHR (by 65% and 82% respectively) JOBY had a number of institutions increase their holdings https://www.perplexity.ai/search/63cc2bf9-85b7-437f-a555-fdd9be7d0857#1 I don't know what next week will hold for us, although it appears to be a slow news week, which to me is never a good omen for the EVTOL stocks. It's interesting to watch what these leveraged 2X ETFs are doing to the stock prices. ARCX launched in June, JOBX launched Sept 9. While i don't see much effect on ACHR's daily stock price, I have seen more volatility in JOBY, where the stock pops in the morning and I feel happy with my profits and I consider getting back in big time, just to check before closing to see it dribble back down. Maybe because the ETF is closing out its positions? If this continues for another week, I will make sure to buy JOBY at the end of the trading session. Good luck day traders - i don't have the stomach for that (some of my wife's relatives lost everything day trading with options and short selling). Anyway, those are my observations and opinions, and I welcome your comments, predictions and corrections. submitted by /u/Investinginevtol to r/JobyvsArcher [link] [comments]
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reddit.com |
Investinginevtol |
Sep 14, 2025 |
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AMPX - Why Amprius Stock Will Yield 300% Returns on Common Stock By May 2025 AND A BIG MASSIVE THANK YOU TO r/Shortsqueeze for over $200K gains in 2024! Big shout out and respect to my two favourite investors on here: u/JSmith108 and u/MeaganFoxesSidePiece. Big Respect Boys! Big Wins! Thanks!
I'd like to start out with a little positivity and gratitude for this sub reddit and investors on here. I made over $200K CAD gains in 2024 on stocks I first spotted on this sub before they ran. I find this sub is the best source to actually finding front runners, stocks with huge potential BEFORE they run...not after. Posts about stocks that have already run at huge multipliers are nearly useless...if you are writing a DD it should be for a stock that has NOT run yet but that will. JSmith - Has called out in succession: NISN, LODE, EVGOW - I realized and sold over $50K CAD in gains from these 3 stocks and now I am still holding common shares of MATE and PLUG. See current positions: https://preview.redd.it/iym9i28dz8be1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=fecff167f9172caac2adc2607a3c949c5ea6302f https://preview.redd.it/518smjsez8be1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=c3a01a352e90fbf66edf3a54f6b625ba31966386 https://preview.redd.it/l0simvtfz8be1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=95fa939334fe361e1fa4eb464b39571ff1e5cf20 Total gains from plays I first spotted from JSmith are in excess of $68K CAD. Big thank you JSmith! The guy is opinionated and can be grumpy with pump and dumps but I mean we grew up in igloos here in Canada so what do you expect? I expect both these stocks have potential to triple up from here. Excited for these two. MeaganFoxesSidePiece - Has called out in succession: WETH, GRRR, POET. Check out my fucking gains on GRRR warrants: https://preview.redd.it/4oeup1qjz8be1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=23b2a043f07522b89ea670fff948599a91e054e0 2400% gains!!!! Since fucking August! And before someone starts screaming at me in the comments: "Why haven't you sold fool you need to take profit!" I have! I started out with 139,999 warrants. I sold in tranches: 40K @ 200%, 30K @ 600%, 30K @ 755%, and then I finally found the top selling 6K @ 2600%. My smallest sale was the only one that found near the top but guess what? I have already realized over $45,000 USD and still hold a whopping $45,000 USD. You don't need to always find the top to take profits and now that I have pocketed $45,000 in gains already I am much more confident holding the remaining $45K long now to go for really huge gains. I expect that if the common shares double from here the warrants will at least 5x from here...perhaps they could even 10x from here if the common stock doubles to about $50/share. And here is another rule: always take profits but sell in tranches...if I had sold my entire position at one time I would have missed out on these truly crazy gains. Over $90,000 USD gains on GRRRW alone! Thank you MeaganFoxesSidePiece! Only babes like Meagan Fox have gigolos this good. Now that I am done giving these two their respect, they have inspired me to try to help others as well...which I have never done...I have always simply kept ideas to myself but JSmith and Meagan have inspired me! I have been researching a company for months now...watching every earnings call, interview, reading everything I can. I am most bullish on this play above all others right now: AMPX. Amprius Technologies. https://amprius.com/ Amprius makes EV batteries...they were founded in 2008 based on an early thesis from Stanford University that Silicone could be used in lithium ion batteries rather than the commonly used graphite. Amprius has breakthrough technology using 100% silicone anode batteries. https://amprius.com/technology/ What does this mean? It means their batteries are twice as good as graphite batteries currently used in EV cars, eVTOL aircraft, smart phones, military applications, anything that uses a battery. I tried to select a single screenshot that cohesively demonstrates this: https://preview.redd.it/l5e4900oz8be1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf2f9c3eaf1832df4091fc76b84db593aac2cfb2 This is all fine and great but unless this is financially viable what do we care right? We are in it for the money! Show me the money! AMPX financials have looked absolutely barf-worthy terrible since their IPO late 2022: https://preview.redd.it/sgk90j2qz8be1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=202cdc610141fb67a995fa7fdc554e20235daeef They lost $36.78M in 2023 on a measly revenue of only 9.05M. Ugly picture from afar looking at their financials which is why stock price has been plummeting and shorted until recently...check out the recent uptick on the all time chart: https://preview.redd.it/zonvcierz8be1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=8d7aeccc80b6b6844d7a5756e66c8ce4d51fa76f The reality is the have been building out a factory in Fremont, California and designing another factory in Brighton, Colorado. So their capital expenditures have been crazy high as they have been scaling up their ability to actually manufacture the batteries at scale, since their tech is so good. And they are just starting to realize this in their financials. Look at their quarterly income from Q3: https://preview.redd.it/b3614zjsz8be1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=ebeb2035a076514f187b7c66418e440c373ae963 They literally doubled their revenue in Q3 from $3.35M to $7.86M!!! This is what first caught my eye. I am the president of a company that grossed $9M in 2024...so I am acutely aware of what $9M in revenue looks like. Increasing your revenue from $3.35M to $7.86M across a single quarter is impressive to say the least. But what if this was a fluke? This is where it gets really interesting!!!!! Their Q3 earnings call is the key to unlocking the true bull thesis on this stock...see link to Q3 earnings call here: https://ir.amprius.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/117/amprius-technologies-reports-third-quarter-2024-business I highly recommend you listen to the whole thing but if you want to cheat skip to the Q&A period at the 31:00 minute mark. 31:53 min: CEO says they have 2 new contracts alone that will yield $20M in revenue by May 2025. 34:45: Analyst asks CEO to clarify: Does this mean that they will start to receive $20M in revenue by May 2025 or does this mean that they will actually have the whole $20M by mid May. 35:00: CEO confirms. Yes. They will have the whole $20M by May 2025 SAY WHAT???? The analyst is almost laughing. Think about that! A company that grossed $9M in all of 2023 is about to gross $20M from 2 new contracts in 2.5 quarters. $20M / 2.5 quarters = an additional $8M / quarter Let's assume at least another $3.35M (half their Q3 revenue) in Q4 to go along with this additional $8M in new revenue from these two new clients and now we have a company grossing $11.3M in Q4! If they gross the whole $7.8M they grossed in Q3 and add the new $8M in revenue then we have a company who is grossing $14-16M in Q4!!!!! I expect their revenue to be somewhere in the range of $14M in Q4, meaning we have a company that is doubling their gross quarter of quarter across the last 3 quarters and may triple their entire revenue YOY. The analysts in the earnings call are actually incredulous...they can almost not even believe their ears and keep asking for clarification. Now the CFO comes on at the 45 min mark on the earnings call. She goes on to confirm that in addition to the $20M revenue they will also save an additional $2.9M in design fees from completing the design of their Colorado facility. Again an analyst is almost amazed and gets her to confirm: "Can you confirm that all else being equal to Q3 you should see your margins improve by close to $3M." CFO confirms: "Yes." Period. So we are about to see this company go off for $20M in additional revenue, doubling their revenue quarter of quarter for at least 3 quarters while cutting $3M in costs?????? Highly unusual but it is because they are finished their factory in Fremont. So now imagine what this Q4 image will look like...the blue line will rocket up by double and the yellow line will go down to the lowest its been in 5 quarters, perhaps ever: https://preview.redd.it/n9kp6e8xz8be1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=86b11ab1f0990da2885e9959627f4a21f8204a88 This is exactly when you want to be buying a company...right at the turn around point when they go from unprofitable and burning cash to having a clear line to profitability. Ok so then I went down a rabbit hole trying to figure out who their clients and partners are...and now it gets really interesting. They have huge clients: Airbus, BAE...but who were their new clients? And who are these new Fortune 500 companies they have not revealed the names of yet: https://ir.amprius.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/112/amprius-signs-development-contract-for-a-high-energy-custom https://amprius.com/amprius-secures-over-20-million-in-contracts-for-light-electric-vehicle-applications/ Then I stumbled upon their partnership with KULR: https://www.kulrtechnology.com/kulr-partners-with-amprius-technologies-to-develop-reference-design-to-enhance-battery-safety-and-performance-in-advanced-air-mobility/ KULR has partnered with Amprius to: "provide Amprius’ customers with a solution to address thermal runaway at the battery pack level that leverages KULR’s advanced energy management platform...to meet the rigorous thermal qualification standards set by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)" KULR stock has run 700% since Nov 25th when they announced they were awarded a US Navy Contract: https://www.kulrtechnology.com/kulr-awarded-u-s-navy-contract-to-develop-high-temperature-internal-short-circuit-cells-for-enhanced-battery-safety-in-critical-applications/ The Navy has contracted KULR to produce battery cells that enhance safety using "Internal Short Circuit (ISC) technology to activate at higher temperatures." Hmmmmmm...so KULR partners with Amprius to address thermal safety standards...then the US Navy hires KULR to develop safer batteries at higher temperatures. This is indirectly Amprius's contract as well as they will be providing the battery technology!!!!! They are the batter manufacturer not KULR. Meanwhile look at the performance of these two 1 year charts: https://preview.redd.it/pafpzyjzz8be1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=1049e070a9e7a9b9c694ba4d3da958ec213cf1c4 https://preview.redd.it/5h6d68u009be1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=94504c13c5ead3d4c7663b23030562abb8c7d6e0 I believe that AMPX is lagging behind the success of KULR but not by much...you can see the uptick just starting to happen in the stock but it is still very very early. AMPX has not yet run but is just getting ready to! Hence this DD! Now add in some colour with the recent success of companies in the eVTOL sector like ACHR and JOBY...both of which have had huge runs...and we see a huge potential for a battery manufacturer who just finished a factory that can build batteries that enable these light electrical aircraft to travel twice as far and charge twice as fast and last twice as long. Now sprinkle in the fact that analysts have recently adhered to buy ratings on the stock. HC Wainright just issued a $10 prediction and Oppenheimer just issued a $14 prediction. I mean, I don't follow analysts closely but when researching a company you are bullish on it is always comforting to see this: https://preview.redd.it/t3babmd209be1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=712aa6bf9ddc92d2a0172a6a1efb07930fee36c7 I think with the tailwinds of this KURL Navy Contract and partnership. With the tailwinds of massive gains in the eVTOL sector. With $20M in confirmed additional revenue across the next 2.5 quarters and confirmed $3M less expenditures Q4. With programs with Fortune500 Companies and with a newly completed factory that lets them manufacture at scale: Positions: 7999 shares AMPX: $26K USD AMPX Warrants: $6.5K USD https://preview.redd.it/ukaez6n309be1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=60ce0aee013364d17944853ee1b3b46d4bb56475 https://preview.redd.it/jld0z3j409be1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=f153a29664e9753842eafed182a456e388f30d1a https://preview.redd.it/f258ifd509be1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=49ab4028919265dd1fb4b81f53bc82aeed7c355d My thesis: AMPX will see 300% returns by May 2025, when the $20M in revenue is fully realized. Looking to buy more warrants this week. Not financial advice. Thanks again for the great 2024 r/Shortsqueeze!!!!! submitted by /u/GiosepeFavolino to r/Shortsqueeze [link] [comments]
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reddit.com |
GiosepeFavolino |
Jan 5, 2025 |
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I'm going to keep saying it - This stock is $3 - It's Shorted TO HELL - and is actually a great fuckinig company - Get in here - Call on RK to Invest in ACHR - DD: Archer Aviation is WORTH MORE Than $1 Billion - Flying Cars Are the Future Of American Air Dominance & We Will Not Be Denied By China
I posted here many moons ago (25 days ago) that Archer Aviation was on the precipice of something huge in Advanced Air Mobility Aircraft aka eVTOL aka AIR Taxis aka flying cars aka the Jetsons. Today, I have delivered on that prediction and today Japanese Airlines Partnership with Sumitomo Group Joint Venture Soracle have agreed to purchase 100 Archer Midnight Aircraft. This deal is a testament to the continued leadership of Adam Goldstein and the Archer Team. But I have something more important to discuss with you today and it deals with American Air Dominance which I am referring to AADAAM (American Air Dominance Advanced Air Mobility) aka ADAM aka ADAM Flying Cars. We cannot let China do what they are doing to the EV market with dumping a bunch of unsafe and impractical flying vehicles that aren't conformed through the rigorous FAA rules and regulations. China will try to steal our technology and our advancements by any means necessary. We cannot let that happen. If you're wondering what the hell I am talking about look no further than this headline: China accelerates its plan to develop a USD44 billion low altitude economy by 2026 In this article, The China Communist Party is willing to go to any means necessary to win on the EV Flying Cars low altitude economy by running not only a state sponsored dump and dump scheme but also they will employ espionage and sabotage for ADAM Flying Cars. The launch today of the Jiangmen Low-Altitude Tourism Town project (including an order for 100 Xpeng Aerhot eVTOLs) and the Taiyuan City low altitude programme in late May (with the purchase of up to 500 EHang EH-216 eVTOLs), marks a new phase of acceleration of the Chinese government’s “low altitude economy” strategy. ... Meanwhile, a China Daily report of late May 2024 said that Guangdong province has drafted a 2024-2026 plan to develop a low-altitude hub in the province which will generate revenues exceeding 300 billion yuan (USD41.4 billion). The plan aims to establish a low-altitude eco-system featuring coordinated development between three key cities — Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Zhuhai. The plan proposes to explore and open low-altitude air routes between Guangdong and Hainan provinces. Espionage? Too crazy for you on a Thursday morning. Look at this post on the sub u/achr Evtolstockman is a Chinese eHang Shill https://preview.redd.it/l0zm7nqpxhzd1.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=76b752d64692531ed4c92383905bde23d67dc4b3 It is my belief that not only is that troll, which there are 1000 examples of him doing this, simply promoting Ehang. I also believe that he is part of a Chinese state sponsored disinformation and pro China hype campaign that through China support is also participating in market manipulation through enormous short pressure on the Archer and Joby stock prices. I have posted daily the amount of Off Exchange Dark Money Pools are hammering Archer stock in particular. This is a daily activity for this market that is unrelenting and purposeful with the intention of driving down the eVTOL AAM market outside of the state sponsored Chinese Espionage activities. Make no mistake, this is through sympathy and through concert of the Grizzly Research report on ACHR released over a year ago. ACHR is shorted over 60 Million shares and has dragged the effective market cap down to $1 Billion. I am here to tell you that Archer Aviation is WORTH MORE, MUCH MORE, than only $1 Billion. If the Communist Party of China is willing to pour $44 BIllion USD (Gazillion yuan) into the "Low Altitude Economy" by 2026 than what the hell do you think Archer Aviation is worth? Surely it cannot only be worth $1 Billion. Today Archer Aviation will have its Earnings Call After Hours and I look forward to hearing from Adam Goldstein and the Archer team on a fantastic quarter and future quarter guidance of the Type Certification, UAE operations in 2025/2026 and Piloted Flight for the Midnight Aircraft. The call is going to be awesome! Here is what we must hear on the call with clarity and conviction When piloted flight When UAE operations When Type Certification completion and corresponding progress q by q When more money come from prior commitments When moon I have a ton of ACHR shares and will look for qualitative news like today's and the continued leadership by Adam Goldstein to add more when appropriate. Let's GOOOO submitted by /u/Xtianus21 to r/roaringkitty [link] [comments]
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reddit.com |
Xtianus21 |
Nov 8, 2024 |
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Dilution and The Special Theory of Stock Relativity: Redshifted / GreenShifted - When it's good and when it's bad - Joby's share offering.
TLDR: If you walk away remembering one thing remember this, dilution is relative. And yes, the theory of relativity directly applies here. Redshifted and Greenshifted explained below. Just always remember, perspective is key. Dilution is not the red headed boogie man you think it is. For a growing company it is a very necessary thing. Let me show you an extreme example of one of my Favorite stocks; NVDA (Nvidia). Do you know how many shares Nvidia started with at its IPO back on January 22, 1999? A paltry 3,500,000 shares at an offering price of $12 per share. Look at this. https://preview.redd.it/gocxr8niyrwd1.png?width=913&format=png&auto=webp&s=010a70dcd4eab029679977a6001737f8fd56f2e6 Ahhh, to be young again. Those were the days. Do you know how many shares NVDA has outstanding now? Roughly 24.53 Billion outstanding shares. Talk about the bottom now we're here. Now, we're not saying Archer is Nvidia that's not a fair comparison but it brings up my next point. In this, you can see that dilution is relative. Relativity is a bastard of a concept to understand but once you gain some clarity on it many things you experience day to day are in fact relative. By the way don't feel bad if the theory of relativity seems difficult to understand as you wouldn't believe the ungodly amounts of pseudoscience that is based on quantum physics that tries to ignore relativity as if it doesn't exist. In the simple case, special relativity is simply saying that when you compare something as an observer your perspective changes with time, distance and speed. Changes with time distance and speed with a stationary observer. Got it. So with share offerings or "dilution" the observer is simply YOU and we are simply talking about changes in Time, Share count, Share price (Value), Ownership Percentage, and Company Stability. Time through observation is key here in both theories. Your relative motion to a light source affects what you observe. If a light source is moving away from you, a high-energy blue wavelength of light becomes stretched which and thus causes shifting to the red end of the color spectrum—a phenomenon known as Redshift. We call this observable change in light energy 'Redshifted' due to relativity, and it's how we know that, on a cosmological scale, galaxies appear to be moving away from us—or more precisely, 'receding' from us at immense speeds due to the expansion of spacetime. And that, folks, is how Einstein's theories of relativity help us understand the universe. What I want to do next is tie in Einstein's relativity into a stock market phenomenon known as Dilution or Share Offerings. All the variables for Dilution/Share Offering(s): The Special Theory of Stock Relativity (I just coined that by the way) are there to observe at any point in time. A company in capitalism begins by literally giving out shares. They literally start this way. At that exact moment in time—because, yes, we still have to consider that pesky fourth dimension—there was an initial share price at the time of the share offering. In that, the underlying stocks shares price will hit the open market and begin trading its perceived value and it will go up and it will go down depending on how much buying and selling occurs. "Risk factors" commencing on... From this point forward. Share count is going to increase because that is the point of the offering. The value is realized through the share price. A company that is just offering shares without any value would not have anyone buying those shares and it would not go well for them theoretically. This is where company stability comes in. The observer at the moment of purchasing shares has to believe that the perceived value is worth the investment and decide to buy, hold, or sell. And for some jerks they will short it but I digress. Ownership percentage will change but that is an obvious reality to this observation. when there is more shares circulating obviously ownership percentages change. Keeping with our relativity theme the observable redshifted or blueshifted causality of a share offering is ultimately the share price which is also the same as the perceived value/market cap of the underlying stock. If you were just purchasing the shares after the announcement of the offering you may deem this as a good entry point because the share price just went down most likely as a result of the news. On the other hand, if you already own shares, you may be upset or disappointed because of the exact same reason. It's all just relative to your situation at that time. The other factors to generally consider is why a company is issuing debts, warrants, or offerings. At the simplest of terms that are positively received it can be so that the company is propping up their war chest for a future acquisition and purchase. In the worst possible terms it can be because a company needs a financial lifeline to stay afloat. The latter is usually not acceptable for the buyer side. Effectively a company with a very low share price could be sending themselves right over a cliff with a diluted share price. Literally almost short/sinking themselves and causing a potential downward spiral. In other words, they could be the end of their own existence. If it sounds grim that's because it is and the reason why a company can't just issue debt to bale themselves out of an insolvent situation. On the opposite side of the spectrum we can imagine a share offering for all the right reasons. These may include, increased liquidity, capital purchases, loan repayments, purchasing power, acquisitions, and Increase general future prospects that benefit the business. In this way, we can refer to a bad dilution share offering as Redshifted and a good dilution share offering as Greenshifted. But here is the thing about light and wavelengths. They mix colors and can show you a gradient of perceived realities. It's not all just black and white if you will. At this relative vantage point it may be hard to discern if the share offering dilution was a good or bad thing. For each and every move a company makes during the time of a share offering you can imagine that there are pros and cons. In the recent cases of stocks like GME you can imagine a mostly Greenshifted adjustment with tinges of Redshiftedness at the perspective of the company as the observer. The stock shot up and they cashed in. For the company this is fair play. For you and I as the observer the feeling is more of that being Redshifted. See how relativity works here in terms of perspective. A person buying at the top and possibly selling has a very Redshifted point of view. In the very least if they hold on they have just became less liquid. From the company's perspective they strengthened their financials and have much less risk of insolvency for years to come. To a new investor entering the stock at this point in time may look very favorably on this and as a result buy more shares. For Joby this one is more complicated and if I were giving a color rating based on what we know I would call this Orange -- Greenshiftedness. The reason being is that it's not all good but it is obvious to why they would have done it. The bad, for me, is that they are spending a lot of cash per quarter. This is a "red flag" if you will. The timeline and plan may have a perfect reason as to why they did it. Remember, they just recently announced $500 million from Toyota and that drove the stock way up. Well, think about it, what the hell is the literal difference there other than perception? If you have the power to issue shares to a willing participant then why the hell not. Toyota didn't donate the money to them like a charity for goodness sakes. All investors expect a return at some point in time. Again, over and over again, dilution is relative. The pros in Joby's move imply strength. I can issue this to willing buyers so I will. Their business plan and thesis is working so they felt comfortable doing what they did regarding their issuance. But that's exactly it. The market will react to the share offering in what it deems the perceived value the share issuance provides. Will they do good things with this money. Will it be spent judiciously. Will it benefit the company in the long run. These are all questions the market will ask and answer over time. Which leads me to our pride and joy Archer Aviation. Archer is in a much different situation and therefore it would not be looked kindly on to do any type of share dilution offering at this time. This would clearly be a Redshifted event. They're not coming from a position of strength as the share price / market cap is well under that of Joby and closer to that of what once was Lilium. The move would provide desperation and concern rather than sound investment. A very good positive for Archer is that it is running more efficiently. It is also at this moment more behind. They really really really need to get piloted flight going. They need more Type certification progress. So at this point in time a large dilution would be very Redshifted and the resulting stock price would suffer as a result. My prediction would be the market would not look kindly upon this. But that could be a very different sentiment in a relatively short period of time. If Archer can show more partnerships, more investment from outside investors, and start piloted flight quickly all of those factors would meaningfully raise the share price and would thus make a diluted share offering much more palatable. At this time, in no uncertain circumstances, would it be advisable that Archer conduct a share offering. You do this from a position of strength, not weakness. At this point in time Archer needs to show strength and we are all here waiting for it. And that folks, this is my Dilution: The Special Theory of Stock Relativity. Might be for good or it might be for bad. In either case it's for YOU to decide. submitted by /u/Xtianus21 to r/ACHR [link] [comments]
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reddit.com |
Xtianus21 |
Oct 25, 2024 |